Israel’s notably subdued response comes as the United States and Iran engage in heightened military actions. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had previously advocated decisively against Tehran, playing a crucial role in influencing US military strategies. His past efforts included promoting the elimination of Iran’s leadership, significantly impacting earlier military operations that included attacks on February 28.

Prior to the escalation, Israel provided intelligence to the US regarding an alleged Iranian assassination plot aimed at former President Donald Trump, which reportedly influenced the US’s decision to take military action. However, as the US takes the lead in these strikes, Israel has opted for a more reserved public stance, raising questions about the reasoning behind this shift.

This change in approach could be aiming to protect Israel from Iranian retaliation, which has primarily targeted other nations housing US military bases, such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Oman. By maintaining a lower profile, Israel may be gaining essential time to enhance its already limited air-defence capabilities.

Strategic Calculations Underpinning Israel’s Approach

Despite its quiet public presence, there is speculation that Israel is still keen on military actions against Iran. Reports suggest that discussions about resuming aggressive operations have persisted since the ceasefire in April. Many in Israel’s security community believe that previous campaigns concluded prematurely, leaving important Iranian assets untouched.

Former adviser to ex-Prime Minister Shimon Peres, Nimrod Novik, indicated that sentiment within the Israeli defence establishment leans towards wanting another opportunity for decisive action. He noted that some Israelis would willingly face increased missile threats if it could lead to a sustained, diminished Iranian threat in the region. Yet, he also acknowledged that such strategic optimism has not consistently proven valid in historical contexts.

Analysts indicate that the prospect of renewed military engagement is fraught with significant economic implications for Israel. Any extensive campaign targeting Iranian infrastructures could potentially inflict greater civilian suffering rather than merely affecting leadership. This situation complicates Netanyahu’s position, as it could lead to international disapproval of Israel being perceived as the aggressor in a new conflict.

The Risk of Escalation and Strategic Caution

Netanyahu’s recent silence on ongoing hostilities reflects a broader strategy for Israel. Analysts suggest that Israel’s preference is to avoid being viewed as the instigator of renewed conflict, particularly given perceptions of Netanyahu’s role in earlier confrontations that involved the US. Consequently, Israel appears to be adopting a conservative approach by allowing Washington and Tehran to continue their mutual strikes.

Should Israel decide to engage militarily, it would require using airspace over Jordan, Syria, and Iraq, potentially expanding the conflict into a larger regional crisis. As tensions remain high, Netanyahu has issued a stark warning to Iran, stating that any attack on Israel would provoke a significantly stronger response. His declarations underline a commitment to retaliate if threatened, stressing that past actions should not be seen as indicative of future responses.

While Israel seems to be treading carefully, there are inherent risks in this waiting approach. Observers have noted that as the US and Iran exchange hostilities, advancements in Tehran’s nuclear programme could continue under the radar. With international inspectors currently unable to access Iranian facilities, Israel’s intelligence capabilities are increasingly vital for assessing Iranian intentions and actions.

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