The arrival of India’s southwest monsoon, initially anticipated to reach Kerala by now, is facing delays. The latest projections indicate that the monsoon may not make landfall before June 3, with some meteorologists suggesting it could be postponed even further. This marks the third adjustment in the forecast for this year’s monsoon onset.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had first predicted that the monsoon would hit Kerala on May 26, preceding the typical onset date of June 1. This optimistic update raised expectations for an early rainy season. However, that date has since passed without any significant rainfall. Following this, forecasts shifted to May 28, before reverting to the usual arrival timeframe around June 1.

Currently, the IMD has confirmed that the onset will likely not occur until after June 3, with the possibility of an even later arrival. The delay has become a topic of interest, particularly as the monsoon is a vital event for the country, influencing agricultural and water resource management.

Reasons Behind the Delay

The southwest monsoon is crucial as it is typically the first weather pattern to impact the Kerala coast before progressing northward to cover the entire nation by late June to early July. The onset of the monsoon in Kerala serves as a significant marker for the start of India’s four-month rainy season.

For the IMD to officially declare the monsoon’s arrival, three criteria must be met: consistent rainfall across at least 60 per cent of designated weather stations in Kerala, adequate westerly winds over the Arabian Sea, and sufficient cloud cover confirmed by satellite imagery. Currently, the westerly winds have not reached the necessary strength, even though moisture is available and isolated rains have been reported across parts of Kerala and Lakshadweep.

Additionally, the impact of a cyclone that developed over the Bay of Bengal has complicated the situation, as cyclonic activity usually disrupts the wind patterns essential for the monsoon’s progress. The IMD is monitoring the situation and expects the winds to begin strengthening around June 1, which may initiate the monsoon, although the final date remains uncertain.

Implications of the Monsoon Delay

While a few days of delay in Kerala does not necessarily signal widespread issues for the rest of India, the IMD has clarified that the monsoon will be considered officially late only if it does not arrive by June 8, one week after its normal schedule. Thus, there remains a small window for conditions to align favourably.

This year’s delay coincides with a period of severe heat across large portions of the country, raising concerns amid forecasts of an intense El Niño phenomenon, which could further disrupt weather patterns. The IMD has indicated that the strengthening El Niño might lead to below-normal rainfall for the season in 2026. Current estimates predict rainfall could be around 90 per cent of the historical average, a downgrade from earlier expectations of 92 per cent.

The anticipated effects of this intensifying El Niño are expected to reduce rainfall in the latter part of the season, particularly affecting central and southern regions of India. As such, the continued delay of the monsoon keeps the population awaiting the beneficial rains that are integral to agricultural viability and overall climatic balance across the country.

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