The expansion of China’s military capabilities is evident with the enhancement of its underwater fleet, specifically with the introduction of a new class of submarine. Satellite imagery dated May 31 revealed a novel submarine at the Jiangnan Shipyard in Shanghai, notable for the absence of a traditional sail, marking a significant advancement in submarine design.

This new vessel attracted attention after being highlighted by France-based Naval News, which labelled it as a distinctive design in the evolution of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). The absence of the conventional sail is indicative of China’s ongoing experiments in improving submarine efficiency and stealth.

According to submarine expert H I Sutton, the submarine is approximately 120 metres in length and 10 to 11 metres wide. While it is confirmed as a new class, it is not categorised as a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine. The boat is characterised by a sleek bow and X-form rudders, which are expected to enhance its performance by reducing drag.

Growth of the PLAN’s Submarine Fleet

The PLAN has reportedly launched between 15 and 20 submarines across various classes over the past five years, showing rapid development in its underwater capabilities. It is expected that the submarine fleet will increase to around 70 by 2027, further strengthening China’s naval power.

Rear Admiral Mike Brookes from the US Office of Naval Intelligence testified earlier in March that this growth could include six new guided-missile nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSGNs), among other types. Such an addition would represent a significant enhancement to the submarine capabilities of the PLAN.

Brookes projected even further developments, estimating that by 2035, the PLAN could possess as many as 80 submarines, half of which would be nuclear-powered. This growth trend is notable, particularly as the US Navy’s submarine fleet is expected to reach a low point during the same timeframe.

International Naval Developments

China’s advancements in submarine technology are part of a larger trend observed in various nations pursuing nuclear-powered submarines. Australia has expressed a commitment to acquire submarines through the AUKUS agreement, focusing on acquiring second-hand Virginia-class submarines from the United States.

South Korea has announced plans to develop its own SSNs, formally launching its initiative on May 26. The objective is to commission these submarines by the late 2030s, reflecting an increasing emphasis on advanced underwater capabilities in the region. The South Korean government believes that nuclear-powered submarines are essential for ensuring national security against emerging threats.

As nations like Australia and South Korea enhance their naval capabilities, there is concern about potential repercussions for regional security dynamics. For instance, developments in South Korea may prompt Japan to consider its own nuclear submarine programme, as nations respond collectively to perceived threats from their neighbours.

Future Implications and Strategy

China’s ongoing developments signal a strategic pivot towards enhancing its underwater military efficacy. Vice Admiral Richard Seif from the US Navy remarked that emerging classes of submarines, such as the Type 095, introduce significant advancements in stealth, propulsion, and weaponry.

This focus on submarine technology suggests that China is aiming to establish a formidable presence in maritime operations, potentially impacting the balance of naval power in the Indo-Pacific region. A defence strategy that incorporates nuclear capabilities may alter operational requirements and resource deployment within the PLAN.

Moreover, Brookes indicated that investments in shipbuilding infrastructure have substantially increased China’s submarine production capacity. Enhancements realised since 2010 allow for sustained growth, positioning China as a dominant force capable of producing various types of submarines, thereby solidifying its military presence at sea.

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