Heavy rainfall is anticipated in Northeast India on June 29, as indicated by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Regions such as Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, and the northeastern hills will experience the most significant precipitation, with some areas likely receiving more than 20 cm of rain in a single day.

Forecasters categorise any region recording over 20 cm of rain in one day as experiencing extremely heavy rain, which can lead to rapid flooding in low-lying areas. Apart from the hilly regions, areas in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Meghalaya are bracing for isolated very heavy rain, and some parts of Kerala are also included in this forecast.

Moreover, heavy rain is expected in Bihar, Odisha, Telangana, coastal Karnataka, Konkan and Goa, as well as in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. These regions should prepare for substantial rainfall that could disrupt daily activities.

Heatwave Conditions to Affect Northern Regions

While rain is poised to affect the northeastern parts of the country, northern India continues to grapple with elevated temperatures. On June 28, the southwest monsoon’s advance was still limited, with the Northern Limit of Monsoon noted south of key locations such as Surat, Indore, Mandla, and Motihari. Areas above this line, including substantial parts of Uttar Pradesh and Delhi, remain under the influence of dry and hot conditions.

Heatwave conditions are expected to prevail in pockets of Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, and Haryana, where temperatures may soar to 42°C. The IMD defines a heatwave as a day when temperatures exceed 40°C in the plains, staying significantly above their normal levels.

For instance, Phalodi in Rajasthan recorded a temperature of 43.8°C on June 27, while Delhi is projected to experience a range of 40°C to 42°C, accompanied by possible light rain and gusty winds in the evening hours.

Factors Contributing to Rainfall and Heat Conditions

The contrasting weather patterns can be attributed to two main phenomena. Firstly, the monsoon trough, which is a belt of low air pressure stretching from Punjab to Bihar, draws in moist air from the ocean. This air rises towards the low-pressure area, leading to cooling and precipitation.

Secondly, the concept of orographic lifting plays a crucial role; the mountains force moist air from the Bay of Bengal to ascend, cooling it further and intensifying rainfall as water vapour condenses. This explains why regions like Sikkim and Meghalaya frequently see high rainfall totals.

Additionally, various cyclonic circulations, seen as inward-spinning winds over Madhya Pradesh, the Arabian Sea, and Telangana, are expected to enhance precipitation across the central part of India. Furthermore, a western disturbance is anticipated to arrive from the Mediterranean, reaching northwest India by July 2, which could bring much-needed relief to the plains from the ongoing heat.

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