Former Trump Aide: Trump’s Tariffs Risk Sending India Closer to Russia and China

Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton has sharply criticised President Donald Trump, stating that Trump’s leniency on China and his hardline stance with heavy tariffs on India has put at risk decades of American effort to shift India away from the influence of Russia and China. Bolton, speaking in interviews and op-eds, said that Trump’s decision to impose a double dose of tariffs totalling 50%—including a secondary 25%—on Indian goods in response to India’s purchase of Russian oil could become an “enormous mistake” for US foreign policy. He described Trump’s treatment of India as overly harsh, especially when compared to the more favourable approach towards Beijing.

Bolton highlighted the irony in imposing tariffs on India purportedly to penalise Russia, cautioning that this move could backfire badly. In his analysis, such measures may inadvertently push New Delhi closer not only to Moscow, but also to Beijing, risking a political and economic realignment that would see India negotiating alongside Russia and China to tackle America’s tariff threats. Indian officials have reportedly reacted very negatively to the tariffs, particularly noting that China, despite continuing its own large-scale trade and energy ties with Russia, received lighter treatment from Washington.

The former Trump aide pointed out that the White House appeared indecisive on its China strategy, often scaling down announced tariffs and pausing escalation in pursuit of “a deal” with President Xi Jinping. This bias, Bolton warned, trades away the US’s strategic interests for minor economic or political wins, and puts at risk years of efforts by diplomats to bring New Delhi into a stronger partnership with Washington. Bolton’s concern is that the US position not only undermines trust with India, but also shrinks American influence in the region at a time when China is seeking to expand its dominance across the Indo-Pacific.

Bolton also commented on the timing of the tariff escalation and its direct link to India’s trade relations with Russia, including imports of crude oil and military equipment. He emphasised that Trump’s approach—a sudden and sharp penalty—was received as a surprise in India and could trigger additional economic and political costs if New Delhi is forced to seek solidarity with Beijing and Moscow. If China manages to negotiate a better deal with the US, the anger in India, according to Bolton, can only intensify.

The implications of Trump’s tariff policies go deeper than trade. Bolton suggested the move could cause lasting strain in India-US relations and weaken the effort of both countries to counter China’s emergence as a global power. He advised both governments to remember that such policies may not outlast Trump’s presidency and that India should be cautious before making any strategic pivot back towards Russia or towards closer cooperation with China.

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