The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has issued a significant warning regarding the rapid development of El Nino in the Pacific Ocean, which is predicted to have wide-ranging effects on weather patterns worldwide. As the warming of the Pacific influences climatic conditions, India faces potential direct repercussions. The likelihood of El Nino emerging between June and August stands at 80 per cent, with a 90 per cent chance that it will persist until at least November. This situation necessitates immediate preparation from farmers, state governments, and water authorities.

The alarm is being raised due to historical trends, as past occurrences of El Nino have often disrupted India’s monsoon season, which is vital for agriculture and water supply.

Understanding the Phenomenon of El Nino

El Nino is characterised by an unusual warming of the central and eastern regions of the Pacific Ocean, resulting in altered wind patterns and changes in global rainfall distribution. It typically manifests every two to seven years, lasting between nine to twelve months. While certain areas, such as parts of South America, may experience increased rainfall, southern Asia, including India, frequently faces reduced precipitation during these events.

The phenomenon is predicted to have intensified consequences due to rising global temperatures, which exacerbate heatwaves and lead to irregular rainfall patterns. The previous strong El Nino phase in 2023-24 resulted in unprecedented global temperatures, and scientists anticipate similar climatic pressures this time around.

Projected Impact of El Nino on India’s Monsoon

In India, the southwest monsoon arrives in Kerala around early June and contributes approximately 70 per cent of the nation’s annual rainfall. This rainfall is essential for agricultural activities, drinking water supply, and the overall economy. Current forecasts indicate concerning trends, as regional climate forums, supported by WMO data, project below-average monsoon rainfall for South Asia.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued expectations of rainfall that may reach only about 90 per cent of the long-term average. Central and northern regions could be particularly vulnerable, facing weaker monsoon patterns and prolonged dry spells, which may lead to uneven rainfall distribution.

This situation poses significant challenges for millions of farmers who rely on rain-fed agriculture for crops such as rice, maize, pulses, and cotton, potentially resulting in lower soil moisture, diminished harvests, and increased operational costs. Historical trends from previous El Nino occurrences indicate a propensity for drought-like conditions in various parts of the country, which severely affects food prices and rural incomes.

Importance of Pre-Emptive Measures

Despite these challenges, early warnings provide valuable time for India to take action. State governments can implement strategies to promote water conservation, strengthen irrigation practices, and encourage the adoption of drought-resistant crop varieties. Adjusting planting schedules and managing reservoirs effectively will also be crucial in mitigating the potential impact.

According to WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, advanced forecasting plays a critical role in safeguarding lives and livelihoods. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has referred to El Nino as an “urgent climate warning” that exacerbates the challenges posed by global warming. While the occurrence of El Nino cannot be prevented, India’s established meteorological infrastructure and experience with variable monsoon patterns offer a solid foundation for coping with its effects.

With the monsoon season, which was slightly delayed, now approaching on June 4, the extent of El Nino’s influence will largely depend on how effectively India prepares in the forthcoming weeks.

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