The southwest monsoon is expected to make its official entry into Kerala today, 4 June 2026, after a period of anticipation and delays. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on 3 June that conditions favourable for the monsoon’s advance have developed in parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, as well as over various areas of the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. This event is significant as it marks the beginning of the rainy season that provides nearly 70 per cent of India’s annual precipitation.

Prior to the official declaration, the IMD will continue to observe the weather patterns in Kerala. The onset will be confirmed once key thresholds are met, which include consistent rainfall across a minimum of 60 per cent of the state’s designated weather stations, alongside noticeable wind patterns and adequate cloud formation.

Weather Expectations Ahead

As the monsoon approaches, widespread rainfall is anticipated across Kerala today, with isolated heavy to very heavy downpours expected. Similar weather patterns are predicted for parts of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and the Lakshadweep Islands. Coastal regions in Karnataka are also likely to experience heavy rains, while thunderstorms and gusty winds may affect various southern regions of India.

In addition to Kerala, unstable weather conditions are projected to have an impact on other areas, with the IMD warning of potential thunderstorms and strong winds reaching speeds of 40 to 50 kmph in parts of southern peninsular India. Following this, rainfall activity is expected to intensify, particularly from 5 June, with very heavy rainfall occurring in isolated areas across Kerala.

Heavy showers are also forecast for coastal and interior Karnataka, along with Konkan, Goa, Tamil Nadu, and portions of Maharashtra. Elsewhere, thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and robust winds are anticipated throughout parts of central and northern India.

Future Outlook for the Northern Regions

As Kerala braces for the monsoon, attention turns to the anticipated timeline for its arrival in other regions. Typically, the monsoon progresses swiftly along the west coast and across much of northeastern India throughout June, generally reaching central states like Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh by mid-month. From there, it extends further into eastern and northern areas.

Historically, Delhi receives its first rainfall around 27 June, while regions in northwest India—such as Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and western Uttar Pradesh—tend to see monsoon coverage by the end of June or during the first week of July. If conditions remain conducive, northern areas may receive showers by early July.

Currently, the focus remains on Kerala as the nation awaits the official declaration of the monsoon’s onset. Meteorologists will closely monitor the monsoon’s movement following its arrival on the state’s coastline to gauge how it progresses further north and maintains the necessary momentum to deliver seasonal rainfall across the country.

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