The recent data indicates a significant revival of the southwest monsoon in India, resulting in an overall surplus of rainfall for the first week of July. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that from July 1 to July 6, the country accumulated 53.3 mm of rain, exceeding the normal figure of 48 mm by 11 per cent.

Satellite imagery from ISRO’s INSAT-3DS illustrates a marked resurgence of the monsoon, with dense cloud formations covering nearly the entire nation. Various active weather systems are currently generating widespread precipitation from the Arabian Sea to the Bay of Bengal and the Himalayan foothills.

Meteorologists attribute the robust rainfall to the simultaneous impact of a Monsoon Trough, a Monsoon Trough Cyclone (MTC) in western India, and a depression situated over the Bay of Bengal. These atmospheric conditions have rejuvenated the monsoon, particularly following a lacklustre performance in June, which was noted as one of the weakest starts in recent decades.

Heavy Rainfall Forecasted for Vulnerable Regions

The IMD has issued alerts for very heavy rainfall in Odisha, Chhattisgarh, and eastern Madhya Pradesh over the next 36 to 48 hours as the Bay of Bengal depression advances inland. This system is expected to bring significant downpours to eastern and central India, raising concerns over potential waterlogging, flash floods, and river overflow in at-risk areas.

Mumbai, having already experienced several days of consistent rainfall, is predicted to see light to moderate showers in the morning, with increased intensity expected later in the day. The ongoing influx of moisture from the Arabian Sea, combined with active monsoon circulation over western India, could trigger further heavy showers across Mumbai and the Konkan Coast.

The western region continues to benefit from widespread rainfall due to the influence of the Monsoon Trough Cyclone, while northern parts of India are receiving rain linked to an active monsoon trough extending through the Indo-Gangetic plains. Concurrently, the depression in the Bay of Bengal is intensifying thunderstorms and heavy rain in eastern states.

Regional Variations in Rainfall Across India

However, certain areas, including parts of Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar, and sections of Northeast India, continue to experience rainfall deficits. Nevertheless, this gap is anticipated to close if the prevailing active monsoon phase continues.

As nearly the entire country is now enveloped in rain-bearing clouds, meteorologists predict that the southwest monsoon will maintain its vigour in the following days. The anticipated widespread rainfall is expected to enhance kharif sowing, boost reservoir levels, and alleviate concerns stemming from the delayed onset and underwhelming performance observed during much of June.

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