India is set to experience an exceptionally wet beginning to the pre-monsoon season, as confirmed by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The forecast indicates that rainfall in May 2026 is expected to surpass 110 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). This marks a notable deviation from the usual climatic conditions typically observed during early summer.

The LPA for rainfall in May, calculated based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 64.1 mm for North India and the nation as a whole. The current projections suggest that most regions will see rainfall amounts that are normal or above normal, potentially alleviating the impacts of rising temperatures and mitigating the likelihood of early-season heatwaves.

Forecast Highlights Regional Variations In Rainfall

While widespread precipitation is anticipated, the distribution of rainfall may not be uniform across the country. Certain regions in the east and northeast, along with east-central parts of India, might experience below-normal rainfall levels. This discrepancy in rainfall distribution could have significant implications for agricultural planning, especially for crops that rely on early seasonal rains.

In the short term, the IMD has issued warnings regarding severe weather activities in various regions. Areas such as Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, as well as parts of the northeast, are predicted to receive extensive rainfall paired with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds reaching speeds of 40-60 kmph until May 5. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected, raising concerns over localised flooding and possible disruptions.

Similar weather dynamics are anticipated in other parts of the country. The Western Himalayan region and the plains of northwest India, alongside adjoining central areas, may encounter isolated thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds between May 3 and May 6. Eastern India and states along the east coast are also likely to witness storm activities during this timeframe.

Implications Of Weather Patterns On Agriculture And Infrastructure

Meteorological specialists have noted that such weather patterns are standard during the transitional phase between spring and the southwest monsoon. However, the expected intensity of rainfall this May could exceed normal levels. The increase in thunderstorms and strong winds may present risks to infrastructure, agriculture, and outdoor activities.

This forecast emerges when substantial portions of India are facing escalating temperatures. Above-normal rainfall has the potential to moderate heat levels, enhance soil moisture, and improve water availability in the short term. Nonetheless, experts warn that intense periods of rain within short timespans may result in urban flooding and affect crop yields in vulnerable regions.

As the nation prepares for May, the IMD has advised state authorities and residents to stay informed through local weather advisories, especially in areas that are susceptible to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. This proactive approach is critical in mitigating risks associated with the forecasted precipitation.

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