As the conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran progresses into its second week, Iranian leadership has maintained a resolute position, dismissing US calls for an “unconditional surrender” while committing to continued resistance. However, signs of discord within Iran’s leadership have become increasingly apparent as the war, perceived by many as a critical struggle for survival, unfolds. The recent passing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28 has exposed the deep rifts between moderates and hardliners concerning the country’s wartime strategy. Khamenei had commanded unwavering loyalty among various officials and figures within the regime, and his absence has intensified conflicting views on the war’s direction.

Significant Incidents Highlight Leadership Disputes

The splits within Iran’s leadership were accentuated by three noteworthy events. Firstly, President Masoud Pezeshkian faced backlash from hardliners after he expressed regret for Iran’s military actions against neighboring countries. His subsequent clarification, claiming his remarks were misconstrued and calling for unity, underscored the rift. Secondly, the elevation of Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Supreme Leader, to the role of the new Supreme Leader drew criticism. This appointment was reportedly backed by hardline factions and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), leading reformists and moderates to view him as an unsuitable figure for leadership. Lastly, the increased assertiveness of the IRGC has shifted the balance of power within the clerical hierarchy, reducing the influence of traditional religious leaders.

Pezeshkian’s Apology Triggers Political Backlash

In the aftermath of Ayatollah Khamenei’s assassination, a three-member interim council was established to lead Iran temporarily. This council included Pezeshkian, Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, and senior cleric Ayatollah Alireza Arafi. Following Khamenei’s death, they vowed to deliver swift retribution, launching extensive missile and drone strikes targeting US and Israeli interests, as well as civilian infrastructures across several Gulf nations. However, internal discord swiftly surfaced. On March 7, just a week into the conflict, Pezeshkian issued an apology during a televised address for the strikes that affected Gulf countries. He emphasized that the attacks were not intended against these nations, but reaction from hardliners was swift and condemning, dismissing his sentiments as weak.

IRGC’s Growing Influence and Mojtaba Khamenei’s Controversial Ascendancy

Following the heavy criticism Pezeshkian faced, he quickly retracted his apology, claiming that Iran’s actions were solely directed at US military targets. This quick pivot illustrates the intense pressures leaders face within Iran’s political landscape. Mojtaba Khamenei’s recent appointment as Supreme Leader has not been without contention. Many in the clerical establishment are against a familial succession, viewing it as a breach of the fundamental principles that underlie the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Despite the opposition, support from the IRGC played a crucial role in his ascent, reflecting his longstanding ties and influence within the organization’s brass.

Power Dynamics Shift as IRGC Bypasses Clerical Authority

The ongoing war has further augmented the autonomy of the IRGC, allowing it to increasingly dictate Iran’s military and strategic policies, often sidelining traditional clerical authority. Reports have indicated that hardliner factions advocated for rapid succession decisions following Khamenei’s assassination, amid concerns of a leadership vacuum. The impact of the IRGC’s pressure on the Assembly of Experts is evident, showcasing the internal conflicts that have unfolded with key figures calling for urgency in leadership resolutions. Ultimately, Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment signals a consolidation of power within the IRGC, raising questions about civilian leadership’s role as the country faces growing external threats.

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