The ongoing conflict involving Iran has created substantial challenges for chefs in Dubai, prompting notable adjustments to their menus. Shaw Lash, the chef at the Mexican restaurant Lila Molino, reported difficulties in sourcing key ingredients such as avocados and tomatillos, which are essential to her culinary creations. The disruption in supply routes—specifically the closing of the Strait of Hormuz—has made these ingredients not only harder to obtain but also significantly more expensive.

To adapt, Lash has made operational changes including reducing her production levels and downsizing her payroll. She has chosen to focus on her popular make-at-home fajita kits and grocery line, which have garnered positive customer feedback. According to Lash, the evolving situation has increased costs associated with cargo and gas prices, directly affecting her restaurant’s supply chain.

Other chefs in Dubai are facing similar challenges and are adapting their offerings, with many opting to use more locally available ingredients or limiting their dish selections. The situation has prompted Dubai authorities to implement broader economic support measures aimed at stimulating dining activity in the region.

Impact on the UAE Restaurant Market

The blockade and subsequent economic ramifications have impacted the UAE’s full-service restaurant market, which was valued at approximately USD 9.5 billion last year. Prior to the onset of the conflict, industry analysts projected a growth rate of 20 per cent in 2023, estimating the market could reach USD 11.3 billion. However, the ongoing war has disrupted this optimistic forecast.

Following military actions involving the US and Israel, the Gulf region experienced several weeks of retaliatory strikes, which contributed to further instability. Although a ceasefire was established on April 8, access through the Strait of Hormuz—the primary maritime link for food imports—remains restricted, affecting the supply of food to the UAE, which relies heavily on imports for over 80 per cent of its food needs.

Furthermore, a recent survey indicated that food service operators in the UAE reported an average decrease of 27 per cent in demand compared to the previous year, while supplier costs increased by 13 per cent. Tourist areas and business districts have been particularly vulnerable, though residential establishments have shown more resilience.

Alternative Strategies and Local Sourcing

Kelvin Cheung, a chef at the fusion restaurant Jun’s Dubai, noted the difficulties in sourcing perishable items such as Norwegian scallops due to the increased costs associated with air freight. He reported a rise in transportation costs by approximately 30 to 35 per cent, prompting him to incorporate local seafood into his offerings.

Air freight rates have reportedly surged by up to 70 per cent on specific routes, further complicating logistics for chefs and restaurateurs. The slow recovery of flights to and from the UAE has added to the frustration of an industry already under significant pressure due to decreased tourism.

Cheung has responded by introducing a six-course menu priced at 225 dirhams (USD 61) featuring locally sourced ingredients, while also ensuring that all staff remain on board. Several restaurants are planning to implement discounts for set meals during the approaching Restaurant Week in May to attract more patrons.

The ongoing conflict has magnified existing issues within the restaurant industry, including high operational costs and reliance on tourism. Industry observers note that while international brands may possess advantages, the escalating costs present challenges for all players in the market. Some establishments have temporarily closed for refurbishments, while new venues continue to launch, suggesting a gradual resurgence in the dining scene.

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