The United States has accused China of conducting a covert nuclear explosive test on June 22, 2020. This claim follows the deadly clash between Indian and Chinese forces in Galwan Valley, which occurred just days prior, resulting in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers.

The allegations have reinforced calls for a new global arms control framework, especially in light of the recent expiration of the New START treaty, the last major nuclear arms control agreement between the US and Russia.

Context of the Galwan Valley Clash

The confrontation in Ladakh on June 15, 2020, involved significant casualties, with estimates suggesting over 35 Chinese soldiers were killed. The US has emphasized that the timing of the alleged test, shortly after this critical and deadly encounter, raises concerns regarding China’s intentions and nuclear capabilities.

Details from US Officials

US Under Secretary of State Thomas G. DiNanno has highlighted that China employed techniques designed to evade international monitoring systems, stating that the country conducted yield-producing nuclear tests that could remain undetected. DiNanno’s remarks indicate that China utilized decoupling methods to lessen the efficacy of seismic monitoring, suggesting a deliberate attempt to conceal its nuclear activities from global scrutiny.

New START Treaty Expiration

DiNanno’s comments coincided with the expiration of the New START treaty, which had established limits on nuclear arsenals for the United States and Russia. Signed in 2010, the treaty’s relevance was questioned as it approached its expiration, especially with increasing concerns over the expansion of nuclear capacities by major powers, including China.

Implications of Uneven Constraints

The Under Secretary noted that the treaty imposed disproportionate constraints on nuclear powers. He pointed out that while virtually all US deployed nuclear forces were subject to New START, a significant portion of Russia’s stockpile was not covered, and importantly, none of China’s nuclear assets fell under the treaty’s regulations. This discrepancy calls into question the treaty’s effectiveness in managing comprehensive nuclear risks.

Calls for a New Nuclear Framework

In response to the shifting global nuclear landscape marked by China’s covert activities and Russian violations of international norms, DiNanno stated that there is a pressing need for a new arms control framework. He emphasized the necessity of addressing contemporary threats rather than adhering to outdated mechanisms that no longer serve current geopolitical dynamics.

Three-Way Negotiations Suggested

The US administration has reiterated its stance on pursuing three-way nuclear arms control negotiations involving China and Russia, especially after the end of the New START treaty. However, China has rejected this proposal, maintaining that its nuclear arsenal is significantly smaller than those of the US and Russia, and therefore it will not engage in disarmament talks at this time.

Historical Context of Nuclear Testing Accusations

Former US President Donald Trump had previously hinted at similar accusations without providing specific details. In discussions last year, Trump suggested that the US would initiate nuclear testing to keep pace with Moscow and Beijing, reflecting the tense dynamics surrounding nuclear armament discussions.

Concerns Over Global Nuclear Stability

Analysts have indicated that the conclusion of the New START treaty marks a significant moment for global nuclear stability. The lack of established limits may heighten the risk of an arms race, particularly given the backdrop of increasing geopolitical tensions and mutual distrust among major powers.

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