With less than three weeks remaining before Bangladesh’s national parliamentary elections on February 12, political assessments indicate that the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) remains the frontrunner, while Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) is rapidly positioning itself as a formidable challenger. Intelligence-based assessments suggest a highly competitive and polarised contest across large parts of the 300-seat parliament.
According to an internal assessment accessed by intelligence agencies in Dhaka, Jamaat-e-Islami expects to secure outright victories in at least 76 constituencies, while viewing contests in another 85 seats as evenly balanced. The Islamist party believes its organisational reach, disciplined cadre base and targeted campaigning could allow it to directly challenge the BNP across a significant portion of constituencies.
Jamaat’s resurgence follows the August 2024 regime change, which ousted the Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League government and installed an interim administration headed by Mohammad Yunus. Since then, Jamaat has significantly expanded its grassroots presence and consolidated its support base, particularly in urban and semi-urban areas.
Intelligence officials say Jamaat plans to contest the BNP directly in at least 172 constituencies. Since October 2024, the party has reportedly concentrated resources on 162 priority seats, shifting vote banks from weaker areas to bolster prospects in targeted constituencies. Special focus has been placed on 20 Dhaka seats, where supporters and cadres were encouraged over several years to relocate and strengthen local influence.
BNP’s campaign push and internal challenges
The BNP has gained renewed momentum following the return of its Acting Chairperson Tarique Rahman on December 25, 2025, after nearly 18 years in exile in the UK. Rahman is expected to launch intensive campaigning in northern districts from January 22, after the Election Commission completes nomination scrutiny.
However, BNP leaders remain concerned about Jamaat’s growing organisational momentum. The party is also grappling with the challenge of over 90 rebel candidates, a factor that could split votes in several key constituencies and weaken its overall electoral performance.
Security concerns and regional implications
Jamaat has reportedly mobilised around 1.5 million expatriate supporters to vote through postal ballots, while urging domestic supporters to do the same. In Dhaka, the party’s Women’s Wing and Islami Chhatri Sangstha are said to be deploying “special tactics,” including extensive door-to-door surveys. Intelligence sources claim activists have been collecting voters’ National ID details, mobile numbers and mobile banking information—raising concerns over inducements ahead of polling day.
Security arrangements have also drawn scrutiny. Ansar–VDP personnel are expected to form the bulk of polling-centre security, with reports suggesting attempts by Jamaat to position sympathisers within these roles. Jamaat-Shibir cadres are expected to arrive early at booths on polling day, immediately after Fajr prayers, to establish dominance during initial voting hours.
India is closely monitoring developments, viewing the election as critical to regional stability. New Delhi has signalled a preference for a BNP-led government, considering it a lower-risk outcome than a Jamaat-influenced administration. Recent diplomatic gestures—External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s visit to Dhaka for Khaleda Zia’s funeral and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s messages to Tarique Rahman—underscore India’s intent to recalibrate ties with the BNP.
As Bangladesh heads into a high-stakes election marked by ideological divides, organisational muscle and geopolitical undercurrents, February 12 is shaping up to be a decisive—and potentially destabilising—moment for both Dhaka and New Delhi.
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