The upcoming general election in Israel, scheduled for 27 October, is drawing significant attention as it follows the recent Hamas-led attacks on 7 October. This election is viewed as a critical moment in Israel’s political landscape, with potential global ramifications. Current polling indicates a competitive race between incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot, a former chief of the Israel Defense Forces.

Eisenkot, who established the Yashar Party just last year, has gained traction due to his military background and relative newcomer status in politics. His campaign focuses on accountability for the security lapses that preceded the 7 October attacks, during which nearly 1,200 individuals were killed. Eisenkot’s personal loss, having lost his son in the early stages of the Gaza conflict, adds a poignant dimension to his candidacy.

Other notable figures in the election include former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, both of whom advocate for hardline security measures and assertive Israeli control over the occupied West Bank. In contrast, left-wing candidate Yair Golan supports the withdrawal of Israeli forces from significant portions of the territory. Despite their differing ideologies, these leaders may collaborate with Eisenkot to form a coalition government.

Structure of Israel’s Political System

Israel’s legislative body, the Knesset, consists of 120 seats, necessitating a minimum of 61 seats to establish a governing majority. The country employs a proportional representation system, resulting in coalition governments formed by multiple parties. Consequently, it is common for the post-election period to extend for weeks or even months as parties negotiate agreements and concessions.

In scenarios where no coalition can achieve a majority, a minority government may be established. This complexity often leads to prolonged political negotiations, as seen in previous elections where parties struggled to cooperate effectively.

The current election cycle has been heavily influenced by pressing issues, particularly security concerns stemming from the recent attacks. Candidates have been vocal in their critiques of the government’s handling of security, while Netanyahu continues to position himself as a strong leader in this domain, citing military successes since 2023.

Implications for Palestinians and Future Governance

The ramifications of the election extend beyond Israeli citizens, significantly impacting Palestinians in both Gaza and the West Bank. Following the recent conflict, Israel has maintained a level of military engagement in Gaza, claiming to target Hamas operatives. Reports indicate that over 74,000 individuals have died in Israeli strikes since the onset of hostilities on 7 October 2023.

In the West Bank, tensions have escalated, with a noted increase in violence from Jewish settlers. The expansion of Israeli settlements, deemed illegal under international law, continues to be a contentious issue. Both leading candidates, Netanyahu and Eisenkot, have expressed support for certain settlement policies, although Eisenkot has indicated opposition to specific controversial projects that could further divide the territory.

The election outcome will play a crucial role in shaping future relations with Palestinians. Historically, many Israeli politicians have endorsed a two-state solution, yet support for this concept has waned significantly. In the current political climate, none of the major Jewish parties are advocating for this approach, reflecting a shift in public sentiment regarding Palestinian statehood.

As the election date approaches, exit polls will be released at 22:00 local time on election day, providing early insights into voter preferences. Preliminary results are expected the following day, with official results to be announced on 4 November. Following the elections, President Isaac Herzog will consult with party leaders to determine the most viable candidate for forming a government, a process that may take considerable time and could lead to further elections if no agreement is reached.

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