The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is on the verge of returning to power in Assam, showing a substantial lead in 98 constituencies during the ongoing counting of votes for the 2026 Assembly Elections. The trends reflect a decisive mandate that goes beyond simply maintaining incumbency, suggesting a robust consolidation of the Hindu vote that has altered the political landscape in the state.

As the vote counting continues, the BJP has reportedly surpassed the majority mark of 64 seats, signalling a landslide victory. In contrast, the Congress-led opposition appears to have faltered significantly in its attempts to reclaim lost political ground, losing traction among key voter demographics.

Challenges Faced by the Congress-Led Alliance

The Congress party, alongside its allies, has struggled to regain its traditional support from various demographics, including the Ahom community, tea garden workers, and previous Muslim voter groups. This shortfall has resulted in a weakened presence across several vital constituencies in the region.

The alliance, comprising notable leaders such as Gaurav Gogoi from the Congress, Akhil Gogoi from Raijor Dal, and Lurinjyoti Gogoi from the Assam Jatiya Parishad, was formed with the intention of appealing to the influential Ahom vote bank. However, current reports suggest that their efforts have not resonated strongly with the community they aimed to represent.

In the Jorhat Assembly constituency, Gaurav Gogoi trails behind BJP’s Hitendra Nath Goswami by a significant margin of 19,626 votes after 13 rounds of counting. Similarly, in the Khowang constituency, Lurinjyoti Gogoi of the Assam Jatiya Parishad faces an 8,675 vote deficit against BJP’s Chakradhar Gogoi during the tenth round of counting.

Government Statements and Electoral Landscape

The Chief Minister of Assam, Himanta Biswa Sarma, has claimed that the BJP’s governance has revitalised the state. He emphasised that the people of Assam are witnessing a transformative phase that is grounded in local culture and heritage. Sarma further asserted that no “indigenous Indian” would support Congress due to its perceived failures.

Sarma made provocative comments regarding the Congress party, stating that it would never regain power in India and suggesting that it would only be successful in Pakistan or Bangladesh. His remarks highlight the assertive rhetoric often used during election periods, aiming to consolidate the BJP’s base.

According to the latest data from the Election Commission of India (ECI), the BJP is leading in 79 constituencies, while the Indian National Congress is ahead in 23 seats. Other parties such as the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) hold 10 seats, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) has 9, and the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) is leading in 2 seats. Both Raijor Dal and the United People’s Party, Liberal have one and two seats, respectively, showcasing a fragmented opposition landscape against the dominant BJP.

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