The United Nations has issued a warning regarding 2026, identifying it as a year of significant risk due to the expected intensification of El Nino, which may combine with soaring temperatures, increasing food costs, and existing global pressures. For India and its neighbouring countries, the agency describes a compound crisis that extends beyond mere weather concerns.

El Nino is characterised as the warm phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climatic phenomenon. The event typically occurs every few years, leading to warmer waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, thereby altering wind and rainfall patterns globally, often resulting in drier conditions across Asia.

The World Meteorological Organization has assessed the likelihood of El Nino developing between June and August 2026 at 80 per cent, with an over 90 per cent probability of its continuation through to November. Most climate models predict a moderate instance, although a severe event cannot be ruled out.

Concerns Over India’s Monsoon Forecast

One of the primary worries for India is the monsoon season, which spans four months and is crucial for the country’s water supply. The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum, convening in Male on April 28, has projected below-normal rainfall across a significant part of the region, forecasting India’s precipitation to reach around 90 per cent of the long-term average, which is used as a benchmark for a typical year.

The UN weather agency has indicated that the expected strengthening of El Nino is likely to lead to a weakened monsoon, increased water scarcity, and elevated food prices in India. If predictions hold, this could result in the weakest monsoon in a decade, adversely affecting crops such as kharif crops, draining reservoirs and depleting underground water reserves.

It is also essential to note that El Nino operates in conjunction with other ocean phenomena. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which measures temperature differences between the western and eastern stretches of the Indian Ocean, serves as a counterbalance to El Nino’s potentially adverse effects on India. In 1997, a strong positive IOD staved off drought conditions despite an intense Super El Nino, but projections for 2026 suggest a neutral IOD, offering no similar shield.

Potential Economic and Health Consequences

The impact of reduced harvests of staple crops like rice, wheat, and pulses typically leads to increased prices, a situation exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts affecting the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for fertilisers. The UN has identified rising urea prices, which have reportedly surged by approximately 80 per cent since February, equating to a serious economic risk alongside the climatic concerns.

The ramifications of heat and water scarcity extend to health issues as well. The UN agency has warned of a potential rise in health complications, including heat-related illnesses, mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue and malaria, and waterborne diseases. Vulnerable groups, particularly young children, pregnant women, the elderly, and economically disadvantaged individuals, are at heightened risk. Additionally, declining agricultural incomes may compel children, especially girls, to leave school.

The United Nations stresses that, while the threats are real, there remains a critical window of opportunity for action. Steps such as ensuring water conservation, distributing drought-resistant seeds, providing support to farmers, building stockpiles of grains, and enhancing heat stress response plans could mitigate the most severe outcomes.

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