On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump stated that there are no discussions scheduled with Iran, while maintaining that the Strait of Hormuz is “open and operating.” His comments came despite a significant decline in maritime traffic and reports of a missile striking a vessel in the vicinity of the strait. This announcement coincided with ongoing negotiations between Iran and Oman regarding a shipping agreement for the crucial waterway.

Trump’s statements were accompanied by rising tensions in the region. Two officials from the area reported that he allegedly threatened to bomb Oman, as that country sought to establish arrangements with Iran concerning shipping passage. This threat followed shortly after an incident involving a projectile hitting a ship in the strait and drone strikes carried out by Yemen’s Houthi rebels at a Saudi oil refinery.

As talks between Oman and Iran progressed towards a potential agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Trump took to social media to affirm that the US blockade on Iranian ports remains “in full force and effect,” adding that all underwater mines had been removed. His posts included a map marking the strait as US territory, which spurred a response from Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi via social media.

Oman’s Negotiations with Iran

Reports suggest that the US administration has advised Oman regarding its reservations about certain aspects of the negotiation, particularly the proposed joint management of the shipping route by Iran and Oman. Furthermore, there are concerns about the collection of voluntary fees from vessels. Officials privy to these details preferred to remain anonymous as they were not authorised to make statements to the media.

Egypt’s Foreign Ministry has stated that the Iranian-Omani agreement could potentially create an avenue for renewed negotiations between Washington and Tehran. This perspective was shared following a meeting between Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty and Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi. Notably, the Egyptian statement did not address Trump’s recent threats directed at Oman.

The 60-day period for negotiations between the US and Iran has concluded without a discernible resolution to the ongoing conflict, leaving many uncertainties in its wake. Meanwhile, data from shipping analytics company Kpler indicated that there has been a stark drop in maritime traffic through the strait recently.

Recent Maritime Incidents and Regional Reactions

According to Kpler, shipments through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply last week, with a confirmed decrease of 19.5 per cent, resulting in only 95 transits. On a particular Sunday, just three vessels used the Iranian-designated route, with no activity noted through the Omani paths. In contrast, crossings through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait saw a rise of 6.7 per cent.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre reported an unidentified projectile hitting the engine room of a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a crew member casualty. The specifics of the vessel and the nature of the cargo were not disclosed. While the extent of injuries to the crew member has not been clarified, there were no reports of environmental damage following the incident.

In a separate context, the Houthis claimed to have targeted a Saudi Aramco oil refinery, as per statements made by the Houthi-affiliated SABA news agency. There have yet to be any verified reports of damage or official comments from Saudi Arabia regarding the incident. The group has also been increasingly active in attacking government forces in Yemen, as well as targeting Saudi oil facilities and maritime operations in the Red Sea.

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