Delhi’s persistent air pollution issue cannot be effectively addressed through satellite technology alone. NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites, launched at the beginning of the millennium, have been pivotal in climate observation, capturing significant environmental events from a height of 700 kilometres. However, farmers in India continue to employ traditional methods for clearing fields, which complicates efforts to mitigate air quality issues.

One major contributor to Delhi’s seasonal pollution is the practice of burning rice straw after the harvest, particularly in the states of Haryana, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh. These regions account for approximately a quarter of India’s rice production. Since 2021, authorities have attempted to use satellite data to identify illegal burning activities and dispatch enforcement teams. However, this initiative has faced significant challenges.

The effectiveness of satellite monitoring has been undermined by a phenomenon known as Goodhart’s law, which suggests that once a measure becomes a target, it is often manipulated. Reports indicate that farmers in Punjab have been alerted about satellite monitoring schedules, enabling them to adjust their burning practices to circumvent detection.

Limitations of Technological Solutions

The initial optimism surrounding satellite surveillance stemmed from previous failures of alternative solutions. In the late 2010s, there was hope that mechanised equipment could eliminate the need for stubble burning. Innovations such as the Happy Seeder and Super Seeder were introduced to allow farmers to sow wheat directly into fields without burning rice residue. However, these solutions have not gained widespread acceptance.

Farmers who adopted these machines faced additional costs, including machinery purchase and diesel fuel. Smallholders, reliant on community-owned equipment, often encountered delays during the critical planting window, making the simplicity of burning straw more appealing. Consequently, many of the crop-residue machines distributed in Punjab since 2018 are now non-operational.

Even among those who utilise these machines, a significant proportion still resort to burning stubble. The underlying issue lies within the political economy of agriculture in India, where government policies have incentivised rice production through guaranteed prices and extensive subsidies. This has led to an increase in crop residue, which farmers must clear quickly.

Political and Economic Factors at Play

The incentives for rice cultivation have created a paradox, as India continues to encourage farmers to grow rice beyond domestic needs. Government inventories have reached unprecedented levels, ten times above the required buffer. A reduction in paddy cultivation around Delhi would be a clear indicator of progress towards improved air quality, yet current trends indicate otherwise.

Efforts to shift agricultural practices away from rice and wheat cultivation in Punjab and Haryana towards eastern states have had minimal impact. Attempts to persuade farmers to adopt less environmentally harmful crops, such as corn and lentils, have also faced significant resistance. The political obstacles to reforming the agricultural system are substantial, as evidenced by the backlash against proposed changes in 2020, which led to widespread protests from farmers.

While technological solutions are continually pursued, the fundamental political challenges remain unresolved. The critical metric is not the number of fires detected by satellites or the distribution of machinery, but rather the area of land dedicated to paddy farming. Without a significant decrease in this acreage, no amount of technology will clear the air in Delhi.

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