Saudi Arabia’s decision to shut its East-West oil pipeline following a recent drone attack has intensified concerns over global energy supplies, with disruptions already affecting major oil routes in the Middle East. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose above USD 105 a barrel on Monday as the war with Iran continued to constrain oil flows.

The pipeline was closed on Friday after an attack Saudi Arabia blamed on drones launched by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. Two regional officials told The Associated Press that repairs could take three to five weeks. The shutdown has heightened concerns over Saudi Arabia’s ability to move crude at a time when both the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping routes remain under severe pressure.

East-West Pipeline Becomes Key Supply Route

The East-West pipeline stretches about 1,200 kilometres across Saudi Arabia, transporting crude from a processing facility near the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Oil can then be loaded on to tankers travelling north towards Europe through the Suez Canal or south through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait towards Asia.

The route is particularly important because it provides Saudi Arabia with an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passed each day before the US and Israel attacked Iran in February. The pipeline was constructed in the 1980s amid concerns that Tehran could disrupt shipping through Hormuz during the Iran-Iraq war.

During the first six months of the current war, the pipeline played a crucial role in keeping some Middle Eastern oil exports moving while most tanker traffic through Hormuz remained halted. Rystad Energy said on Monday that an average 2.6 million to 4 million barrels of crude a day had been transported through the pipeline to Yanbu since late August. That volume is now at risk of “disappearing from the market”.

The International Energy Agency estimates that 4 million barrels a day is equivalent to about 4 per cent of global oil supply. Saudi Arabia, the Middle East’s largest oil producer, produced nearly 10 million barrels a day in September 2025, according to the IEA, but production had fallen to 6 million barrels a day by August.

Hormuz And Red Sea Routes Under Strain

The disruption comes as Saudi Arabia faces growing difficulties on other export routes. The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the global oil market. Before the war, around 20 million barrels of oil passed through the strait each day. Although some tankers have resumed using the route, traffic remains substantially below pre-war levels.

Maritime data company Lloyd’s List Intelligence recorded 90 transits through Hormuz during the first week of September, compared with around 130 ships a day before the war. The reduced traffic has left producers and consumers more vulnerable to additional disruptions elsewhere in the region.

Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels have meanwhile strengthened their hold over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another crucial route for oil and other shipping through the southern Red Sea. Analysts at Melius Research estimated that about 3 million barrels a day were passing through Bab el-Mandeb in early September, but said on Monday that “it’s likely zero now”.

Houthi attacks had already forced most Saudi shipping from Yanbu to take the longer northern route towards the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal or Egypt’s SUMED pipeline. The rebels have now also begun targeting Saudi shipping in the northern part of the route, further complicating efforts to move crude out of the kingdom.

Salvatore Mercogliano, a professor of maritime history at Campbell University in North Carolina, said the situation would have been far more severe if Saudi Arabia had no alternative route available. “If this (East-West pipeline) was the only method for Saudi Arabia to get their oil out it would be absolutely cataclysmic,” he said. “But since the Hormuz route has opened back up — not completely but opened up some — it’s not the death knell for Saudi Arabia. They’re getting oil out.”

Rising Oil Prices Threaten Consumers

The supply disruptions have already pushed fuel prices sharply higher across several markets, with analysts warning that the latest pipeline shutdown could add to the pressure in the weeks and months ahead. Countries in Asia and Africa that rely heavily on Middle Eastern oil imports are among those facing some of the steepest increases in fuel costs.

Data from Global Petrol Prices shows diesel prices in Nigeria are now 92 per cent higher than they were in late February, while petrol prices have risen nearly 61 per cent. In Indonesia, diesel prices have increased 87 per cent and petrol prices 38 per cent. Lebanon has recorded an 80 per cent increase in diesel prices and a 46 per cent rise in petrol.

The US is also facing significant increases. Regular petrol averaged nearly USD 4.32 a gallon on Monday, according to AAA, up almost 45 per cent from USD 2.98 before the war. Average diesel prices reached another record high of USD 6.23 a gallon, without adjusting for inflation, representing an increase of nearly 66 per cent since the beginning of the conflict.

Higher diesel prices can spread beyond the transport sector because the fuel is widely used by long-distance trucks, delivery networks and agricultural machinery. Melius Research analysts warned on Monday, “An inflationary spillover is likely,” adding, “The diesel crunch is also coming ahead of the US harvesting and heating season.”

Rystad Energy vice president of oil markets Janiv Shah said the recent increase in Brent prices indicates that markets are already responding to “a significant loss of supply”. Saudi Arabia’s inventories could help sustain exports in the immediate future, he said, but that support could “change quickly”.

The shutdown of the East-West pipeline has therefore added another major strain to an already disrupted Middle Eastern oil network. With Hormuz operating well below normal levels and the Red Sea facing continued Houthi threats, the loss of a key Saudi export route could further tighten supplies and increase fuel and household costs worldwide.

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