Benjamin Netanyahu, the incumbent Prime Minister of Israel, is reportedly trailing behind his rival Gadi Eisenkot in the upcoming legislative elections scheduled for October 27. Despite this, there are indications that Netanyahu could still regain power through a unity government, with support from US President Donald Trump, who is said to be open to the idea. Reports suggest that members of Netanyahu’s Likud party are advocating for a coalition with Eisenkot, the leader of the Yashar party, despite Eisenkot’s campaign pledges to unseat Netanyahu.

Recent polling data, as reported by The Jerusalem Post on October 23, indicates that Eisenkot’s Yashar party is leading over Likud. The N12 poll estimates Yashar could secure 23 seats compared to Likud’s 19, while Channel 13 predicts both parties at 20 and 19 seats respectively. However, neither party appears likely to achieve the 61 seats necessary for a majority in Israel’s 120-member Knesset.

In the N12 poll, Eisenkot’s bloc is projected to secure 55 seats, while Likud is expected to obtain 51. Channel 13 forecasts a similar outcome, with both blocs potentially achieving 52 and 49 seats respectively. These figures highlight the uncertainty surrounding the election results and the potential for coalition negotiations.

Netanyahu Advocates for a Moderate Government

In light of the polling situation, Netanyahu has been communicating with American and European officials about the possibility of forming a more moderate government in collaboration with Eisenkot. According to The Washington Post, this coalition could enable Netanyahu to distance himself from some of his far-right allies, including Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the Otzma Yehudit party. Netanyahu has reportedly argued that a government led by him would be a strong ally for the United States in its efforts against Iran.

Trump has publicly endorsed Netanyahu, referring to him as a “great warrior prime minister” and a key partner in promoting peace against Iran. On October 18, Trump reiterated his support, emphasising the need for a stable Israeli government to be formed promptly after the elections. However, there are divisions within the Trump administration regarding the feasibility of a unity government, with some officials expressing concerns about Netanyahu’s reliability based on his past political manoeuvres.

The concept of a rotational leadership agreement, similar to political arrangements in India, has been discussed in the context of Netanyahu’s potential coalition with Eisenkot. In Bihar, for instance, Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav formed a Grand Alliance government with an understanding to swap leadership roles. However, such agreements can be fraught with challenges, as seen in previous instances in Indian politics.

Challenges Facing a Netanyahu-Eisenkot Coalition

Despite Netanyahu’s push for a unity government, significant obstacles remain. Gadi Eisenkot and his allies have publicly rejected the notion of forming a coalition with Netanyahu, citing dissatisfaction with his handling of recent conflicts and alliances with far-right parties. Eisenkot has explicitly stated he would not serve under Netanyahu, even in a rotational agreement, indicating a deep-seated distrust.

Furthermore, Netanyahu’s attempts to distance himself from his far-right allies could alienate crucial support. Ben-Gvir has accused Netanyahu of undermining his party ahead of the elections, asserting that the Prime Minister’s Office has assured European nations of a coalition excluding him. This internal conflict complicates Netanyahu’s strategy for forming a government.

As the election approaches, Eisenkot may find himself in a difficult position. If his Yashar-led bloc fails to secure a majority, he may need to consider alliances with Israel’s Arab parties, which could face resistance from his current partners. The political landscape remains uncertain, and the possibility of Netanyahu remaining in a caretaker role could further complicate coalition negotiations.

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