India is preparing for a November characterised by warmer and drier conditions, as indicated by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The IMD’s monthly forecast, reported by the Press Trust of India, suggests that most regions in India will likely experience above-normal maximum temperatures. However, certain areas along the Himalayan foothills may see temperatures that are normal to below normal.

In addition to maximum temperatures, minimum temperatures across the country are also expected to remain above normal. Despite this, several regions in central and eastern India may record normal to below-normal minimum temperatures. This variation highlights the diverse climatic conditions anticipated within the country during this period.

Rainfall Predictions for November

The IMD has projected that rainfall will be below normal in most parts of India throughout November. Nevertheless, some areas in central, northwest, and northeastern India may receive normal to above-normal rainfall. Overall, the country is expected to achieve approximately 77 per cent of its long-period average rainfall for the month, as reported.

The long-period average is calculated based on rainfall data collected over a span of 30 to 50 years. For November, India’s average rainfall, derived from data spanning from 1971 to 2020, is around 29.7 mm. This figure serves as a benchmark for assessing current weather patterns and rainfall expectations.

Similarly, South Peninsular India is also projected to receive about 77 per cent of its long-period average rainfall this November. The average rainfall for this region during the month, based on historical data from 1971 to 2020, is approximately 118.7 mm. These figures underscore the anticipated precipitation trends across various parts of the country.

Impact of El Nino on Weather Patterns

The IMD has noted that very strong El Nino conditions are currently prevailing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System and other global climate models indicate that these conditions are expected to persist through November and December. El Nino is one of the three phases of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, a climate phenomenon associated with variations in sea temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

This phenomenon can significantly affect global weather patterns, typically leading to a warming effect on the planet. In contrast, its counterpart, La Nina, generally induces a cooling effect. A very strong El Nino can disrupt usual temperature and rainfall patterns, resulting in severe droughts in some areas and heavy rainfall and flooding in others, along with increased heat across extensive regions.

As a result, the IMD anticipates a warmer and drier-than-normal November across much of India, with some regional exceptions. This forecast serves as a crucial indicator for various sectors, including agriculture and water resource management, as stakeholders prepare for the potential impacts of these climatic changes.

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