Bangladesh is going for a Parliamentary election on Thursday, February 12, a political event that could significantly influence relations with India. The election comes in the wake of recent political upheaval, particularly following the July 2024 uprising that led to the removal of long-time leader Sheikh Hasina. Given Hasina’s absence from the ballot, many observers believe the outcome may pave the way for a new chapter in India-Bangladesh relations, contingent on a favorable result for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).

Shifting political dynamics

Historically at odds with India, the BNP was once led by Khaleda Zia, creating an intricate backdrop for potential collaboration. Recognizing this dynamic, India has intensified its engagement with the BNP, marked by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent gestures towards Zia’s treatment and subsequent communications with her son, Tarique Rahman. This political maneuvering underscores India’s strategy as it seeks a stable and legitimate government in Bangladesh.

A competitive electoral landscape

The election is expected to be a tightly contested bipolar race between the BNP coalition and another coalition comprising 11 parties, which includes both Islamist and progressive elements, notably the Jamaat-e-Islami. This governance mix raises questions about the direction of Bangladesh’s political future, particularly given Jamaat’s historical rivalry with India.

Alongside the election, a critical referendum

In addition to the national elections, voters will also participate in a related referendum, the “July Charter,” which proposes significant constitutional changes. These include a two-term limit for the Prime Minister and the establishment of an upper house to oversee legislative actions. The charter aims to redefine Bangladeshi identity in a manner that could diminish India’s cultural and linguistic influence.

India’s strategic interests at stake

As the election approaches, India’s focus will center on several critical issues, especially concerning security. Ensuring that Northeast India does not face threats from insurgent groups operating from Bangladesh territory will be paramount for the new government. Past allegations of the BNP-Jamaat administration harboring such groups underline this concern. Additionally, India is wary of the resurgence of defense and security collaboration between Bangladesh and Pakistan, which has historically raised alarms in New Delhi.

Regional security and community safety

Alongside geopolitical interests, the safety of the Hindu minority in Bangladesh, comprising approximately 13 million individuals, remains a significant concern for India. Modi has emphasized this issue in various discussions around bilateral relations. India also hopes to maintain strong ties for logistical cooperation through Bangladeshi ports for trade with the Northeast.

The Sheikh Hasina factor and diplomatic complexities

However, for meaningful outreach to occur with a potential new BNP government, the legacy of Hasina complicates matters. The BNP is likely to advocate for Hasina’s extradition, following her sentencing for alleged crimes against humanity, a topic sensitive to the general population. This situation could affect India’s standing as a reliable partner in the eyes of Bangladeshi citizens.

Possible challenges from a resurgent Jamaat

Furthermore, the electoral success of the Jamaat, projected to secure a considerable number of seats, poses additional risks for India. Should Jamaat emerge as a significant political force, India may need to navigate a complex opposition landscape that could influence BNP governance and, consequently, bilateral relations with New Delhi.

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