The United States has been engaged in a significant military campaign against Iran for over six months, leading to extensive missile expenditure. Thousands of missiles have been deployed in response to Iranian missile strikes and drone attacks on US forces and allies in the region. As a consequence, US war planners are increasingly reallocating military resources from other theatres, raising concerns about the military readiness to confront adversaries like China and Russia.

Recent reports indicate that the US Army has nearly depleted its Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM). According to sources, the US forces used over 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles within the first month of the conflict. Additionally, more than 1,000 Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) interceptors were also deployed to counter the Iranian threats. The stock shortfall is alarming; notably, about 65 per cent of the US Patriot interceptor stockpile has been expended, reducing the number of available interceptors from approximately 2,330 to fewer than 850.

The path to replenishing these resources is fraught with complications. The US’s domestic defence production capacity is struggling to keep pace with the rapid depletion of these critical munitions. Lockheed Martin has plans to boost Patriot interceptor production but it might take several years to sufficiently rebuild the worn stockpiles.

Insufficient Domestic Production Capacity

One major factor contributing to the acute shortage of missiles and interceptors is the inability of the US defence industry to swiftly manufacture replacements. For example, the PAC-3 MSE interceptor, used extensively in the Gulf, has a production rate of about 600 per year. These interceptors are costly, with each unit priced at approximately $4 million, and can take nearly two years to manufacture.

Reports suggest that local military commands have been utilising multiple interceptors to counter each Iranian missile or drone, resulting in an extensive depletion of the available stock. With the entire US military reportedly having fewer than 850 interceptors remaining globally, the situation poses a significant challenge.

Similar challenges threaten the THAAD system, which is designed to intercept ballistic missiles. Recent analyses show that THAAD supplies have decreased by 38 per cent since the onset of the conflict. The urgency expressed surrounding these air defence systems reflects a broader concern regarding the US’s ability to maintain its military effectiveness across multiple fronts.

Global Security Implications of US Weapon Shortages

The ramifications of the US’s reduced weapon stockpiles extend far beyond its immediate engagements. In Europe, declining interceptor arsenals have created “beyond critical” shortages, according to military officials. This scarcity raises serious questions about NATO’s preparedness to defend against potential ballistic missile attacks, notably during a time when geopolitical tensions are running high.

Ukraine, embroiled in its conflict with Russia, has found itself completely devoid of Patriot interceptors, severely limiting its defensive capabilities against missile strikes. Meanwhile, US allies in Asia, such as South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, who rely on US military supplies, have encountered substantial delays in the delivery of essential weapons, including air defence systems and cruise missiles.

The diversion of military resources from the Indo-Pacific region has similarly alarmed US commanders who are increasingly concerned that prolonged engagement in the Middle East could undermine readiness against rising threats posed by China and Russia. The ongoing conflict in Iran appears to disproportionately occupy US military resources, jeopardising the country’s overall security posture.

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