The 31st Conference of the Parties (COP31) is scheduled to take place from 9 to 20 November in Antalya, Türkiye. This year’s summit comes at a time when the world is grappling with significant energy challenges, ongoing conflicts, rising food prices, and the intensifying effects of El Niño. Nearly 200 nations are expected to convene, with climate finance, fossil fuel policies, and the impacts of global warming as central themes.

The conference will unfold along two primary tracks. The first involves formal negotiations led by Chris Bowen, Australia’s Minister for Climate and Energy. Key issues include the need for $1.3 trillion in annual climate finance directed towards developing nations, support for vulnerable countries facing climate-related challenges, and discussions surrounding the future of fossil fuels. The second track will focus on voluntary initiatives proposed by the host nation, which aim to promote cleaner urban environments, waste reduction, healthier oceans, and increased electrification. A notable goal is to elevate electricity’s contribution to global energy supply from 23 per cent to 35 per cent by 2035.

As nations prepare for the summit, the emphasis on collaborative efforts and shared responsibilities is expected to shape the discussions. The outcome of these negotiations could significantly influence global climate policies moving forward.

India’s Stance at COP31

India is anticipated to advocate for a fair and equitable outcome at COP31, urging developed nations to fulfil their commitments regarding climate finance, adaptation support, and technology transfer. At a recent UN event in October, Indian representatives highlighted the necessity for climate action that acknowledges the diverse circumstances and developmental needs of various countries. Additionally, India has expressed concerns regarding unilateral trade measures, such as the European Union’s carbon border tax, which could adversely affect Indian exports like steel.

The Indian delegation is also expected to seek support for adaptation initiatives aimed at protecting vulnerable communities, alongside a just transition framework to safeguard livelihoods. India plans to showcase its achievement of reaching 50 per cent non-fossil fuel power capacity by 2025, five years ahead of its original target. Furthermore, India has revised its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) for the period 2031-35, aiming for a 47 per cent reduction in gross domestic product emissions intensity by 2035 compared to 2005 levels, and a 60 per cent share of non-fossil sources in installed power capacity.

India’s proactive approach at COP31 reflects its commitment to addressing climate change while balancing developmental priorities.

Previous Outcomes and Future Prospects

The preceding summit, COP30, held in Belém, Brazil, in November 2025, resulted in a compromise agreement. Participating countries committed to tripling adaptation finance by 2035 and reaffirmed the target of mobilising $1.3 trillion in annual climate finance by that date. The agreement also established a just transition mechanism to protect workers during the decarbonisation of economies. However, it did not provide a clear strategy for phasing out fossil fuels, with Brazil’s presidency indicating plans for voluntary roadmaps on fossil fuel reduction and deforestation.

Recent reports from the UN indicate that the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as set out in the Paris Agreement, may no longer be attainable. The UN’s Emissions Gap Report 2026 forecasts that global warming could exceed this threshold, peaking at between 1.7°C and 1.8°C by mid-century. Despite this, there remains a possibility of returning to the 1.5°C pathway by 2100, contingent upon significant emissions reductions and the removal of substantial amounts of CO2.

As COP31 approaches, the anticipated impact of the ongoing El Niño phenomenon adds another layer of complexity to the discussions. This natural climate cycle is expected to exacerbate global warming effects, potentially leading to record-breaking temperatures and severe weather events. The implications of El Niño will likely be a focal point for delegates as they navigate the challenges ahead.

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