Pakistan has announced an anticipated 22 per cent decline in water inflows into the Indus Basin for the forthcoming Kharif season of 2026-27, as stated in an official communication accessed by CNN-News18. This projection arises amidst the ongoing suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), which has remained inactive since the terror attack in Pahalgam in April 2025.

The official report indicated that the overall system shortage is calculated at 22 per cent for both the Punjab and Sindh regions. Notably, Pakistan experienced a similar drop in water inflows during the recent Kharif season of 2026, raising alarm bells across the agricultural sector.

Historical Context of Water Shortages in Pakistan

Pakistan’s concerns regarding water shortages are not new. A year prior, the authorities had apprehended a major irrigation crisis after India suspended the IWT in the wake of the Pahalgam attack. At that time, official predictions indicated a potential water shortfall of up to 21 per cent at the onset of the vital Kharif crop season.

However, the situation was somewhat alleviated due to beneficial factors such as floods and snowmelt in the higher Himalayas, which helped mitigate the anticipated shortfall. Despite this, officials have continued to voice worries over diminishing reservoir levels and uncertainties surrounding river inflows.

Concerns specifically about the Jhelum-Chenab river system have also been repeatedly mentioned. Officials emphasise that reduced river flows present a pressing crisis that they attribute to what they describe as ‘India’s short supplies’ in the Chenab River.

Impact on Agricultural Production and Food Security

The implications of water supply fluctuations in the Indus Basin are significant, particularly for food security within Pakistan. Approximately 90 per cent of the nation’s agricultural output is reliant on the Indus Basin Irrigation System. Shortages in water inflows could adversely affect crop yields and food availability across the country.

Punjab and Sindh, which are critical for Pakistan’s irrigated agriculture, are particularly vulnerable to these water shortages. As such, provincial authorities are reportedly preparing for a challenging agricultural season, with documented concerns over diminished water flow in various sections of the western river system.

Given the reliance on these water resources, ongoing tensions around the Indus Waters Treaty could exacerbate the situation, posing significant challenges for farmers and policymakers alike. The precarious situation underscores the intricate relationship between water availability and agricultural stability in Pakistan.

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