The recent cessation of the US-Iran ceasefire has prompted India to heighten its alert status, following Tehran’s decision to close the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for global oil transport and India’s liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) imports. This region is essential for approximately one-fifth of international oil trade, which has significant repercussions for countries reliant on these shipments.

Despite India diversifying its crude oil suppliers and thereby reducing its reliance on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the closure nonetheless poses major challenges, particularly regarding LPG. Reports indicate that India imports about 60 per cent of its cooking gas needs, with roughly 90 per cent of these imports traditionally transiting through Hormuz. If the strait remains closed for an extended period, analysts suggest that household LPG prices could rise significantly.

The response from oil markets has already been witnessed, with Brent crude prices nearing $79 a barrel on July 9, following new US military actions that created apprehensions about supply disruptions due to the intensified conflict.

Safety of Indian Nationals in the Gulf Region

The ongoing conflict triggers significant concerns for over 10 million Indian nationals residing in the Gulf states, including the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain. These countries have activated their air defence systems amidst reports of missile and drone activities targeting the region. The safety of these expatriates has become a pressing issue, with more than eight Indian citizens reportedly losing their lives in connection with the escalating violence.

Maritime safety is also being reassessed in light of the renewed tensions. Previously, the Indian Navy had initiated Operation Sankalp to secure maritime routes and provide support to stranded LPG carriers operating in the region. The Ministry of External Affairs has confirmed its vigilant monitoring of Indian-flagged vessels navigating through Hormuz, despite the slight easing of tensions following the June ceasefire.

At that time, ten Indian-flagged vessels were still stationed in the Persian Gulf, highlighting the ongoing risks associated with this strategic waterway.

Escalation of US Military Actions Against Iran

The renewed conflict was triggered by an increase in US military operations against Iran. The US Central Command announced on July 11 that American forces had conducted strikes on around 140 Iranian military installations, which included missile and drone launch sites as well as naval assets. The operations were characterised by the use of precision-guided munitions, delivered through various land and sea platforms.

According to CENTCOM, American forces have targeted over 300 sites over a span of three nights, following directives from President Donald Trump to counteract Iran’s threats to civilian shipping. This latest military action was initiated in response to an Iranian missile strike that impacted the Cyprus-registered container ship GFS Galaxy, escalating tensions significantly.

In retaliation, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz “until further notice.” Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that the waterway’s reopening would depend solely on Iranian conditions rather than external pressures, asserting that “the era of one-sided deals is over.” This stance has further heightened tensions across the Gulf region.

The implications of this conflict have been felt throughout neighbouring nations, with the UAE Defence Ministry acknowledging explosions related to their air defence systems intercepting missiles. Similarly, Bahrain activated its nationwide alarm for the second time this week, and Kuwait reported engagements with rocket and drone threats, while Qatar issued an emergency alert before later declaring that the immediate risk had subsided.

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