A recent study indicates that regions such as Mexico, Kenya, and Italy are experiencing significantly prolonged periods of heat stress compared to a few decades ago. Reportedly, these areas are facing an increase of one to two months of heat stress, with some regions experiencing even more significant changes. The research, published in *Nature Climate Change* on Monday, has highlighted that regions once considered relatively unaffected by heat stress are now beginning to feel its impacts.

Effects of Climate Change on Temperature and Humidity

According to the research, the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures, heat stress days, and tropical nights have escalated notably over the past sixty years. This trend has been attributed to global warming, primarily a result of fossil fuel combustion, including coal, oil, and gas. The researchers expanded their analysis beyond air temperature to consider “feels-like” temperatures, providing a more comprehensive understanding of heat’s impact on human health.

The study evaluated heat stress levels by analysing temperature, humidity, and wind speed, employing the Universal Thermal Climate Index. This modelling aims to depict how different climate factors affect the body’s ability to manage heat. Increased humidity lowers the evaporation rate of sweat, making it difficult for the body to cool down effectively, thereby increasing health risks during heat waves.

Different categories of heat stress were examined in the research, delineating strong heat stress as equating to at least 32 degrees Celsius, very strong at 38 degrees Celsius, and extreme at 46 degrees Celsius or higher. The findings come at a time when it is reported that individuals around the world experienced an average of 41 additional days of severe heat in 2024, with projections indicating a rise of nearly two months of extremely hot days by the century’s end.

Regional Implications of Rising Heat Stress Levels

The study identified multiple regions that could see substantial increases in heat stress days. Areas in Southern Africa, including parts of Namibia and Angola, as well as regions within Eastern Africa such as Tanzania, Kenya, and Uganda, may face approximately fifty additional days of strong heat stress annually compared to the 1970s. Similar predictions apply to Southern Spain, Italy, Greece, and Turkey, where around forty extra days of strong heat stress are expected.

In the United States, about fifteen or more days are already classified as strong heat stress, particularly in the southern states like Texas and Florida, where individuals may experience nearly twenty-five or more days of very strong heat stress yearly. Furthermore, the study notes an expansion in the duration of heat stress seasons overall, emphasising an urgent need for preemptive measures.

Lead author Rebecca Emerton stated that it is concerning to witness heat stress not only intensifying in historically affected regions but also extending into areas where it has been typically rare. As the analysis indicates, “feels-like” temperatures on the warmest nights have escalated more rapidly than those on the warmest days, raising further health concerns related to recovery time from daytime heat. The number of people experiencing extreme heat stress annually has increased by one billion compared to the 1970s, underscoring a pressing global challenge.

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