The United States military is set to conclude its operations and withdraw all remaining forces from Iraq on Wednesday. This marks the end of an involvement that began with the 2003 invasion, extending over two decades. The decision to withdraw has raised significant concerns in Baghdad regarding potential security vulnerabilities that may emerge as a result.

Experts warn that this could create a security vacuum that might empower Iran-aligned militias while providing the Islamic State group with an opportunity to reorganise and regain influence. The schedule for this departure was established in 2024 under President Joe Biden’s administration, but is being executed under President Donald Trump’s leadership amid ongoing tensions with Iran.

This withdrawal takes place 23 years after US-led forces ended the regime of Saddam Hussein, leading to a prolonged period of insurgency and sectarian strife, culminating in the rise of the Islamic State group.

Impact on Iraqi Security Forces and Public Sentiment

While many Iraqis appear to welcome the withdrawal, there are notable concerns from security officials and analysts about the capacity of Iraqi forces to manage emerging threats independently, given years of reliance on US military support. Reports indicate that approximately 4,500 American service members lost their lives during the protracted conflict in Iraq.

Jassim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi analyst who advises security apparatus, highlighted the longstanding lesson from two decades of military engagement: security vacuums can lead to dangerous consequences. His statements reflect a significant apprehension among experts regarding the ability of Iraqi forces to maintain stability in the absence of US assistance.

The end of US military involvement raises critical questions about the Iraqi government’s preparedness to navigate the multifaceted security challenges ahead, particularly concerning groups with potential ties to both Iran and militant organisations.

Geopolitical Implications of the Withdrawal

Iran has consistently advocated for the removal of US forces from the region and has positioned the American exit from Iraq as a strategic victory for its associated armed groups, often referred to as the “axis of resistance.” Observers assert that this development could significantly bolster the influence wielded by Iranian-backed militias within Iraq.

Ahmed Younis, a political analyst based in Baghdad, expressed concerns that while direct Iranian intervention may not be imminent, the empowerment of proxy groups in the absence of a Western military footprint could have profound implications for the Iraqi state. Such groups might attempt to increase their sway over domestic policies and solidify their foothold within important institutional frameworks.

Despite a complicated relationship, Iraq’s government has endeavoured to balance relations with both Iran and the United States, striving to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape of the region.

Risks of Islamic State Resurgence

Security officials in both Baghdad and the autonomous Kurdistan region have expressed alarm over the potential for Islamic State sleeper cells to exploit the US withdrawal. Although the group lost control of its territorial holdings nearly a decade ago, it continues to operate through clandestine networks across Iraq.

At the height of its power, Islamic State was responsible for mass atrocities and controlled approximately one-third of the country. Throughout the years, US forces have contributed intelligence and surveillance to assist Iraqi security in countering the remnants of the group.

Retired Iraqi Army General Mohammed al-Jubouri has underscored the vital need for the security institutions in Iraq to adapt to this new phase. He stressed the importance of having a robust Plan B for maintaining safety as the coalition presence diminishes, noting the risks associated with Islamic State potentially acquiring advanced weaponry.

Long or Short, get news the way you like. No ads. No redirections. Download Newspin and Stay Alert, The CSR Journal Mobile app, for fast, crisp, clean updates!

App Store –  https://apps.apple.com/in/app/newspin/id6746449540 

Google Play Store – https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.inventifweb.newspin&pcampaignid=web_share