The CPI(M) does not recognise astrology. Yet, after a prediction made by a CPI(M) leader appears to have come true, social media has erupted over it. Gautam Deb, the veteran CPI(M) leader, is now being described across the internet as one of the biggest “astrologers” of recent times. In 2013, Gautam Deb appeared for an interview on a television channel. Speaking about the Trinamool Congress, he said: “If a Chief Minister tells so many lies, she will neither be able to run the state nor the party. The party will be destroyed. The party will split.”
Cut to 2026. At present, there is effectively no Trinamool Congress party left in West Bengal.
By-elections are due to be held shortly in two West Bengal Assembly constituencies — Nandigram and Rejinagar. The Trinamool Congress, as it was previously known, is not contesting under that name in either constituency. Instead, two parties claiming the Trinamool legacy are contesting the elections. One is Mamata All India Trinamool Congress, contesting under the football symbol, while the other, Democratic Trinamool Congress, is contesting with an envelope as its symbol.
Why is there no Trinamool Congress?
Following the Trinamool Congress’s disastrous performance in the Assembly elections, rebellion broke out within the party. Although 80 MLAs were elected on the party’s symbol, the majority of them were unwilling to remain loyal to the Banerjee family. Ritabrita Banerjee, one of the party’s own leaders, was made Leader of the Opposition, and the party began a new political journey under his leadership.
Several former Trinamool leaders, including some who had once been close to Mamata Banerjee, also joined the new party. A majority of the party’s leaders eventually moved to this faction.
Several allegations were subsequently levelled against Mamata Banerjee and her nephew, Abhishek Banerjee. The new faction began claiming that it was the “real” Trinamool Congress. It also laid claim to the party offices, party funds and even the twin-flower symbol.
Meanwhile, by-elections were announced in two Assembly constituencies in the state. Both factions approached the Election Commission seeking the party symbol. But how could there be two Trinamool Congress parties contesting in the same constituencies under the same symbol? As a result, the Election Commission froze both the party name, Trinamool Congress, and its symbol. Both factions were then forced to contest the elections under new names and with new symbols. However, recently, candidates representing Mamata All India Trinamool Congress withdrew their nominations from both constituencies. Leaders from the Mamata Trinamool faction have alleged that the ruling BJP was behind the withdrawals.
The reaction to Gautam Deb’s statement
Critics have dismissed Gautam Deb’s prediction with the Bengali saying, “When a crow dies in a storm, the fakir gets the credit.” In other words, they argue that the prediction should not be treated as evidence of any extraordinary foresight. Kunal Ghosh, spokesperson for Mamata Trinamool, said: “If Gautam Deb knows so much, why could he not predict that the CPI(M) would be reduced to zero after ruling for 34 years? Despite all these conspiracies, the Trinamool still has 80 MLAs. It has not been reduced to zero.”