NATO’s deputy commander in Europe, Air Chief Marshal Sir John Stringer, has expressed growing apprehension about stating that he is becoming “increasingly cavalier, dangerous, and risk accepting.” These remarks came during a security conference in Estonia as concerns mount over various covert actions attributed to Russia.

These included sabotage, espionage, and drone and missile incidents. Stringer emphasised that the situation necessitates heightened awareness among NATO member states to avoid potential provocations from Moscow. Stringer pointed out that the security landscape is particularly volatile, with the line between accidental and intentional actions becoming increasingly blurred.

He highlighted incidents where drones have unintentionally crossed into NATO airspace, potentially due to Russian electronic countermeasures aimed at thwarting Ukrainian drone attacks. Although he acknowledged the possibility of Russia escalating provocative activities, he argued that this does not necessarily indicate a definitive decision by Moscow to act aggressively.

Diverse Threat Assessments from Russia

European leaders appear divided in their evaluations of the threat posed by Russia. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk suggested that Moscow could directly target NATO countries through deliberate attacks while disguising them as accidental. French President Emmanuel Macron echoed Tusk’s concerns, urging his government to devise a plan to safeguard critical infrastructure from potential drone and cyber threats.

In contrast, some UK officials have expressed a more cautious stance, suggesting that Putin is not actively seeking a direct confrontation with NATO. Despite the ongoing tensions, officials from Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have also taken a measured approach, having previously advocated for a firmer Western response to Russian actions. Recent incidents have underscored the reality of Russian incursions into European airspace and ongoing covert operations that began following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

A marked increase in the frequency of malicious activities has been documented, with incidents rising from 59 in March 2025 to over 210. These incidents include vandalism, propaganda campaigns, arson, and instances of sabotage and cyberattacks. For example, German authorities have accused Russia of involvement in a plot at Leipzig airport that involved explosives, while UK officials reported disrupting a Russian plan to sabotage a drone manufacturing facility.

Future Implications and Responses

Officials believe that many individuals recruited for disruptive activities are unaware of their connections to Russian intelligence, complicating efforts to trace responsibility. When confronted with allegations of conducting a covert campaign against the West, Putin has demanded concrete proof of such actions.

Both Stringer and Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal suggested that the increase in covert operations stemmed from Western military support for Ukraine rather than failures on the part of NATO to prevent them. Stringer noted that Putin is actively exploring avenues to incite discord among NATO allies, primarily because of setbacks in the Ukrainian theatre.

Michal characterised Putin’s current posture as that of a “rat in the corner,” indicating a tendency to elevate activities in Europe to erode Western support for Ukraine under pressure. Despite these tensions, Michal stated that a large-scale military assault on Europe by Russia remains unlikely due to the risk of NATO retaliation and the ongoing commitments of Russian forces in Ukraine.

Concerns regarding persistent malign activities from Russia are expected to endure until a significant shift occurs in Putin’s military objectives. Michal advocates for continued support for Ukraine as a preventive measure against future threats, aligning with broader NATO sentiments about maintaining vigilance in the face of ongoing Russian challenges.

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