Israel is set to conduct parliamentary elections on Tuesday, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu aiming to maintain his position in light of scrutiny over his administration’s response to the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent military actions. This election is perceived as a critical assessment of Netanyahu’s governance and leadership capabilities.

Opposition figures, including former military chief Gadi Eisenkot and ex-prime minister Naftali Bennett, are contesting Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition. Current opinion polls suggest that neither the ruling coalition nor the opposition is likely to secure a majority, making the election outcome uncertain.

Israel employs a nationwide proportional representation system, treating the entire country as a single constituency for electing the 120 members of the Knesset, its parliament. Voters select closed party lists instead of individual candidates, which enables multiple political parties to vie for parliamentary seats. A party must achieve a minimum of 3.25 per cent of the votes to gain entry into the Knesset, often resulting in pre-election alliances.

Political Landscape and Key Players

The Knesset operates on a four-year term, although early elections can occur under specific conditions. The party that secures the most seats does not automatically form the government; instead, the president consults with political factions and appoints a member to attempt to form a coalition, requiring the backing of at least 61 lawmakers.

Netanyahu, the leader of the Likud party, has been Israel’s prime minister for nearly 19 years across three non-consecutive terms since 1996. He is seeking to extend his tenure following a tumultuous period marked by the October 7 attack and the ensuing military campaigns. The attack, orchestrated by Hamas, resulted in approximately 1,200 fatalities in Israel and initiated a war in Gaza, escalating into a broader regional conflict involving various armed groups.

Since the onset of the conflict, more than 74,000 Palestinians have reportedly lost their lives, with over 175,000 injured, according to figures from Gaza’s health ministry. Security and accountability concerning the October 7 incident are pivotal issues in the current election campaign, alongside Netanyahu’s ongoing legal challenges, which include allegations of fraud, breach of trust, and bribery, all of which he denies.

Opposition Dynamics and Future Implications

Eisenkot, leading the centrist Yashar party, has emerged as a significant challenger to Netanyahu. Previously a member of Netanyahu’s war cabinet, he resigned in June 2024, citing a lack of strategic clarity in the government’s approach to the conflict. Eisenkot positions himself as a governance alternative while maintaining a firm stance on security matters.

Bennett, heading the B’Yachad electoral alliance that includes Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party, has also been vocal in his criticism of Netanyahu’s governance and security policies. A right-wing politician, Bennett opposes Palestinian independence and advocates for Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank. He briefly served as prime minister in 2021 under a power-sharing agreement with Lapid.

Other notable political entities include Yair Golan’s left-leaning Democrats, Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, and Arab-led parties such as Ra’am and the Joint List. Netanyahu’s coalition is supported by far-right factions led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, as well as ultra-Orthodox parties.

The upcoming election will address critical themes such as the ongoing Gaza conflict, Israel’s relations with the United States, threats from Iran, and the nation’s international standing. While the main candidates differ on Netanyahu’s leadership and internal governance, they largely share similar views on security and the prospects for a Palestinian state in the near future.

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