Saudi Arabia is facing renewed pressure on its energy infrastructure and shipping routes as Houthi rebels make rapid territorial gains in Yemen, drone attacks force the closure of a major oil pipeline and Iran continues to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

The developments have placed Riyadh in a difficult position as its alternative route for oil exports through the Red Sea comes under increasing threat. The uncertainty has been compounded by apparent reluctance from the United States, Saudi Arabia’s main security ally, to expand its military role in the region ahead of congressional elections.

Red Sea Route Comes Under Fresh Threat

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has spent years pursuing an ambitious effort to transform the kingdom through social and economic reforms, while seeking a more stable and integrated Middle East that could help establish Saudi Arabia as a global business hub.

Those plans were disrupted by Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, which set off a series of conflicts across the region. When the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, Tehran retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states and effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz.

The disruption trapped oil and gas exports and sent shockwaves through the global economy. Saudi Arabia was able to avoid some of the worst consequences by transporting oil across the Arabian Peninsula to the Red Sea.

From there, it could export oil to Europe through Egypt’s SUMED pipeline and the Suez Canal, while shipments to Asia could pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and into the Indian Ocean.

That alternative route is now facing mounting pressure.

Tensions with the Houthis escalated again in July, leading the group to announce a blockade of Saudi shipping and resume large-scale attacks for the first time in four years.

Over the past two days, the Houthis have captured the port city of Mokha and a Red Sea island from Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces, strengthening their ability to disrupt Saudi shipments moving through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

According to figures compiled by global trade monitor Kpler, Houthi attacks had already caused Saudi oil exports to Asia to fall from about 3.4 million barrels a day in June to just 128,000 barrels a day in August. Exports recovered somewhat this month to 700,000 barrels a day.

Drone Attacks Force Pipeline Closure

The pressure on Saudi Arabia increased further on Friday when the kingdom said it had shut down the pipeline running from its eastern oil fields to the Red Sea following drone attacks originating in Iraq.

Iran backs powerful militias in Iraq, and regional officials recently told The Associated Press that the Houthis had assisted those militias in carrying out attacks.

The Saudi government did not respond to a request for comment. However, a Saudi official who was not authorised to brief the media and spoke on condition of anonymity said the kingdom would defend itself and work with partners, including the United States, to ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea.

Former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia Michael Ratney described the latest developments as “incredibly frustrating” for the kingdom.

Ratney said, “Despite their antipathy for the Iranians, this is a war they had never asked for, they had great trepidation about. And once it started, all of their worst-case scenarios started coming true. “

Saudi Arabia has fought the Houthis for years. Riyadh intervened in Yemen in 2015, but its allies made little progress against the group on the ground.

The conflict killed an estimated 150,000 people and at times pushed Yemen to the brink of famine before a ceasefire was reached in 2022.

Neil Quilliam, a Middle East expert at Chatham House, said Saudi Arabia had been trying to put the Yemen conflict behind it.

“Saudi Arabia has spent several years trying to move beyond the Yemen conflict and focus on economic transformation and regional stability. ” he said.

He added, “Recent Houthi gains increase pressure on Riyadh to respond, but every available option carries significant costs and uncertain outcomes. “

Riyadh Weighs Military And Diplomatic Options

One possible response would be for Saudi Arabia to intensify military operations in an effort to push the Houthis back. However, such a move could prolong the conflict and expose Saudi energy infrastructure to further attacks.

Sherwan Hindreen Ali, Middle East research manager at conflict monitoring group ACLED, said the Houthis now possessed more advanced capabilities than during earlier stages of the war.

“The kingdom already faced this in the past, but Houthi weaponry is more sophisticated now than it was back then, and the Saudis likely have less interceptor missiles available as a result of the US-Iran conflict,” he said.

Riyadh could instead attempt to pursue diplomacy, either directly with the Houthis or through their backers in Tehran. However, the Houthis have demanded that the Saudi-led blockade be lifted, a move that could strengthen the group over the longer term.

Iran, meanwhile, has little incentive to ease tensions without significant concessions from the United States.

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have relied for decades on US security guarantees, but those ties have come under increasing strain under President Donald Trump.

During his first term, Trump did not respond when an attack claimed by the Houthis in 2019 temporarily knocked out half of Saudi Arabia’s oil supply.

In February, the United States joined Israel in attacking Iran without consulting its Gulf allies. Since then, Washington has struggled to protect them from Iranian strikes.

US Military Stretched As Trump Signals Reluctance

Trump launched an air campaign against the Houthis last year following earlier attacks on Red Sea shipping linked to the Gaza war. The United States is now heavily deployed around the Strait of Hormuz, where its forces are blockading Iran and attempting to prevent further attacks on shipping.

The conflict has visibly stretched the US military and reduced its supplies of advanced interceptors.

The war has also proved unpopular and affected Trump’s political support after he had promised to keep the United States out of Middle East wars. Opening another military campaign in Yemen could create further challenges for Republicans facing closely contested House and Senate elections.

On Saturday, Trump said Iran “probably” was behind the attack on the Saudi pipeline.

Asked about a recent call with the Saudi crown prince, Trump said: “He’s a good friend of mine, and I can just say everything’s going to work out fine and dandy. “

The White House did not respond to a request for comment on whether the United States planned to intervene in Yemen.

Speaking more broadly about the conflict with Iran on Thursday, Trump indicated that electoral considerations could influence decisions on increasing military pressure.

“Maybe I don’t do that because of the election,” he said when asked about stepping up military action, as some US hawks have advocated.

Ratney said Saudi Arabia would find it difficult to achieve its objectives without the sustained support from Washington that it received during earlier stages of the conflict with the Houthis.

“My understanding at this point is the White House is not enthusiastic about getting involved,” he said.

With the Strait of Hormuz still disrupted, the Red Sea shipping route under increasing threat and the pipeline to the Red Sea shut following drone attacks, Saudi Arabia is once again confronting the regional security risks it had hoped to move beyond.

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