The countdown of Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 has started. All political parties have intensified their strategies regarding the election to be held in October-November. On the one hand, the entire opposition, including the Congress-RJD, is busy in creating an atmosphere by taking out the ‘Voter Adhikar Yatra’, on the other hand, the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) is at the peak of seat sharing.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s frequent Bihar tours and the activism of NDA leaders are indicated that the BJP and its allies are very serious about the electoral battle. But the issue of seat sharing is still entangled, and sources say that its biggest loss may have to bear the LJP (Ram Vilas) of Chirag Paswan.
BJP-JDU 50-50 formula
According to sources, the most important partnership in the NDA is to be fixed between BJP and JDU. Both parties can contest almost equal seats in the 243 -member assembly. It is discussed that BJP and JDU can get 100 to 105 seats. Accordingly, the big battle of alliances overall will remain on the shoulders of these two parties.
But JDU is not ready to accept less than 100 seats this time. The party says that the election is being fought under the leadership of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and the entire campaign is focused on bringing him back to power. In such a situation, their seats will not be acceptable in any way.
Challenge of Chirag Paswan
The biggest challenge is about LJP (Ram Vilas). Chirag Paswan’s party is demanding to contest 40 seats, but the top leadership of the NDA is calling it impractical. BJP leaders say that giving 40 seats to LJP can spoil the mathematics of the coalition, because other colleagues like Manjhi and Upendra Kushwaha have to give place.
It is estimated that Chirag Paswan will get only half of his demand i.e. about 20 seats. Not only this, if Mukesh Sahni’s VIP party returns to NDA at the last moment, then there may be less seats in the part of Chirag.
Equation in last assembly election
In the 2020 assembly elections, BJP contested 110 and JDU in 115 seats. At that time VIP was given 11 seats and HUM (Secular) were given 7 seats. While LJP left the alliance and fielded candidates for 135 seats alone. As a result, LJP could win only one seat (Matihani), but it hurt JDU deeply.
In fact, LJP cut so much votes in 64 seats that it directly became the cause of NDA’s defeat. Among them, there were 27 seats where LJP stood second and JDU lost. This is the reason that this time the NDA leadership wants to avoid giving more seats to LJP.
Chirag Paswan argues that his party performed strongly in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. LJP (Ram Vilas) won all the 5 Lok Sabha seats and won more than 6% vote share. The party says that LJP was ahead in 29 of the 30 assembly constituencies in which it gained. On this basis, she is demanding 40 seats.
But JDU leaders say that the circumstances of Lok Sabha and Assembly elections are different. The Lok Sabha elections are fought under the leadership of Narendra Modi, while the local factors and the ground hold of the party matters more in the assembly elections.