Seems the people of Bihar have not yet come out of the fear of Lalu Prasad Yadav’s ‘Jungle Raj’ which is clearly evident from the trend of the results of the Bihar elections in 2025 says so. At the time of writing this report, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar appears to be headed towards a thumping victory and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar sees prepared to secure a fifth consecutive term, as latest trends showed the alliance leading in 200 of the 243 seats in the state.
At 1.30 pm, the trends showed the NDA had surpassed its 2020 results, when it secured 122 seats. The Mahagathbandhan, on the other hand, was leading in merely 38 seats. RJD, Left, Congress are all in the same situation. But why this result?
Fear of Jungle Raj?
Nitish Kumar has been on the Chief Minister’s chair in Bihar for the last 20 years. A large section of Bihar citizens is so upset with the previous 15 years of Lalu-Rabri’s rule that it seems Tejashwi Yadav had to bear the brunt. On top of that, a section of RJD leaders have stirred up that memory of Jungle Raj. Whenever Tejashwi Yadav goes to a public meeting somewhere, he goes with a convoy of about fifty cars. That convoy is full of only extremist youths. It has even happened that in the hope that Tejashwi will become the Chief Minister, the youth of the Yadav community have started acting like a brawler, some have even gone around with weapons. This has created a perception among voters that if this is the scenario while Tejashwi is not in power, what will happen if he comes to power?
Mistake to declare Tejashwi as the Chief Ministerial candidate?
Tejashwi Yadav is young, hardworking and popular. Despite all these, he is still not a match to fight against a personality like Nitish Kumar. Here, it must be remembered that he is the product of dynasty politics. It seems audacious to think that a 35-year-old youth who has qualified till the ninth standard in school will defeat a seasoned leader like Nitish Kumar who has been the Chief Minister of Bihar for 20 years. Moreover, the fear remains that if Lalu Prasad Yadav’s son sits in the Bihar Assembly, will Jungle Raj return? This fear is still haunting the people of Bihar. As a result, it was a big mistake for the Mahagathbandhan to announce Tejashwi as the Chief Ministerial candidate.
Excessive Yadav-Muslim dependency
The Mahagathbandhan planned to win Bihar with the M-Y equation – 14 percent Yadavs, 19 percent Muslims, 9 percent Nishads. It is true that casteism is still a big issue in Bihar politics. But a large section of the people of Bihar have come out of the simple caste equation. The Mahagathbandhan has not found any suitable way to break the new M-Y equation that Nitish has created with the youth and women.
Lack of coordination
The Mahagathbandhan made a good start with Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav campaigning together for Rahul Gandhi’s “Voter Adhikar Yatra”. But the momentum lost steam as soon as the march ended. The opposition camp was completely scheming over the seat deal. The situation was such that even after the nomination filing deadline passed, the seat deal was not finalised. Tejashwi was announced as the face of the Chief Minister at the very last moment. In the month-long campaign, top Congress leaders and even top RJD leaders were not seen in the campaign. By then, the NDA had done its homework well. The results of which were seen in the votes.
Deputy Chief Minister’s face announced
With the hope of getting Nishad and Malla votes, the Mahagathbandhan announced VIP Party leader Mukesh Sahani as the Deputy Chief Minister’s candidate, which backfired. One, Mukesh could not pull the Malla-Nishad votes in the way he was expected to. Two, wrath of the Muslim community. Despite 19 percent Muslim votes, the Mahagathbandhan did not declare any Muslim as the chief ministerial candidate, which upset the minority community. Asaduddin Owaisi took advantage of this. The Owaisis damaged the Congress-RJD in the border region. The BJP-JDU got the benefit of the vote-splitting. The Mahagathbandhan is practically wiped clean in the entire border region. However, they are supposed to get the most seats in this area.
False propaganda?
Ahead of Bihar elections, Rahul Gandhi and the Congress had raised SIR of electoral rolls, vote rigging, as the main issue of the campaign. Which is by no means a local issue of Bihar. Moreover, since the names of many valid voters were not excluded after the SIR ended, that issue also did not survive. The main issues like unemployment, Dalit oppression, corruption, have been ignored. Moreover, Tejashwi came at the last minute and announced that he would provide jobs to all the families, which was not very credible to the people.
As a result, the Mahagathbandhan, despite showing potential at one time, ultimately collapsed.