Oil prices have rebounded, with Brent crude nearing the $100-per-barrel threshold following a significant decline earlier in the week. As of the latest reports, Brent was trading at $99.59 per barrel, reflecting an increase of $1.30 or 1.32%. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also saw gains, priced at $91.34, up by $0.82 or 0.91%. This recovery follows a sharp downturn in prices that had seen both benchmarks suffer steep losses.

On Wednesday, both Brent and WTI experienced their most significant declines in recent sessions, with Brent dropping $8.98, or 8.7%, to close at $94.62 per barrel, while WTI fell by $7.97, or 8.3%, settling at $88.12. These figures marked the lowest closing prices since August 31. The selling pressure persisted into Thursday, with Brent falling below $95 and WTI dipping under $90.

On Thursday, Brent futures recorded a further decline of 50 cents, or 0.53%, bringing the price down to $94.12 per barrel. WTI lost 61 cents, or 0.69%, to settle at $87.51. The fluctuations in oil prices have been attributed to various factors, including geopolitical tensions and market adjustments.

Impact of Middle East Conflicts on Global Refining

The recent volatility in crude oil prices is closely linked to ongoing disruptions in supply routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has significantly affected refinery operations, especially in nations reliant on crude shipments passing through this critical passage.

During the second quarter of 2026, global refinery inputs fell by 4.8 million barrels per day (b/d), or 6%, compared to the previous quarter, according to data from energy intelligence firm Kpler. Although there was a slight recovery of 1.8 million b/d in the third quarter, the figures remained below previous levels as refiners adapted to shifting trade patterns and alternative supply routes. This situation was particularly evident in Asia, where China reported a decrease in refinery inputs of 2.1 million b/d in the second quarter, followed by an additional drop of 0.8 million b/d in the third quarter.

Other Asian countries, including India, South Korea, and Japan, collectively saw a reduction of more than 1 million b/d in the second quarter. However, their combined inputs improved by 0.8 million b/d in the subsequent quarter. The Middle East also faced a slowdown in refining activities due to shipping restrictions, with Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates each experiencing a decline of 0.7 million b/d.

Challenges in Russian Oil Infrastructure

In Russia, refinery operations have encountered additional challenges due to increased attacks on oil infrastructure amid the ongoing conflict with Ukraine. This has led to a decline of 0.6 million b/d in Russian crude oil inputs during the second quarter, followed by another drop of 0.8 million b/d in the third quarter. The reduced refining capacity in Russia, combined with disruptions in Asia and the Middle East, has contributed to heightened pressure on global diesel supplies.

As a result, diesel prices reached their highest nominal levels on record in September, according to the EIA. In contrast, the United States experienced a different trend, with refinery inputs increasing by 0.5 million b/d in both the second and third quarters, as the country ramped up refined product exports to address shortages in other markets.

Despite these improvements in refining activity, global throughput has not returned to last year’s levels, remaining approximately 5% lower than in the corresponding period of 2025, even as crude oil flows gradually improved.

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