A recent study has determined that El Ninos are now significantly more powerful as a result of human-induced climate change. The researchers discovered that the current intensity of El Ninos aligns closely with the rise in global temperatures attributed to activities such as burning fossil fuels. Published in the journal Science on 28 August 2026, the study indicates that El Ninos have intensified by over 36 per cent compared to their strength before the onset of the industrial era in the mid-1800s.

Moreover, the research highlights that there has been a notable 16 per cent increase in the past 40 years, suggesting that this trend is accelerating. The context for these findings comes amid a strong El Nino that emerged a few months prior, which is projected to become the largest on record in the upcoming months.

Impact of El Nino Events

El Ninos represent temporary warming episodes in specific areas of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and they have far-reaching consequences on global weather patterns. These events can trigger extreme weather occurrences, leading to heat waves, floods in certain regions, and droughts in others. The economic impact of El Ninos can reach trillions of dollars in damages.

Julia Cole, the lead author of the study and a palaeoclimate scientist at the University of Michigan, noted the significance of their findings. She explained that robust El Ninos have a substantial influence on climate-related hazards globally. Cole stated that their investigation involved comparing El Nino data against global temperature records, revealing a strong correlation between increasing El Nino strength and rising global temperatures caused by human activities.

To understand the long-term implications of these warming episodes, Cole’s study considered El Ninos spanning approximately 900 years, thereby offering a comprehensive examination of this climate phenomenon.

Expert Insights

Boris Worm, a marine scientist at Dalhousie University and not affiliated with the research, emphasised the severity of El Nino as a major factor in climate variability globally. He remarked that the repercussions of El Nino events can range from local fisheries collapsing to widespread coral die-offs and severe drought conditions that threaten food security worldwide. Citing the warnings of the late climate scientist Wallace Broecker, he reiterated that “the climate system is an angry beast.” Worm further explained that human emissions contribute to this situation, and El Nino represents one of the critical manifestations of climate change that pose risks to global safety.

The strength of an El Nino is determined by monitoring temperature variations in the central Pacific Ocean at the equator, with records compared against standard temperature levels over a three-month average. An El Nino is classified if temperatures exceed 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal, while a measurement of 2 degrees Celsius qualifies as “very strong.” As of the latest update from Columbia University’s El Nino tracker, the current weekly temperature anomaly stands at 2.7 degrees Celsius and is expected to rise further in the coming weeks.

Researchers have long held the view that El Ninos would become more intense as global temperatures increase, given their dependence on ocean temperature differentials. However, the challenge lies in the relatively short duration of direct observational records, which extend only about 75 years. To address this limitation, scientists have relied on indirect indicators of El Nino, including historical weather changes, to identify past occurrences, such as the extraordinary El Nino of 1877. The present study corroborates the assertion that as global temperatures have escalated, so too has the intensity of El Nino events.

Long or Short, get news the way you like. No ads. No redirections. Download Newspin and Stay Alert, The CSR Journal Mobile app, for fast, crisp, clean updates!

App Store –  https://apps.apple.com/in/app/newspin/id6746449540 

Google Play Store – https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.inventifweb.newspin&pcampaignid=web_share