On Sunday, Jared Kushner, a key US negotiator and son-in-law to President Donald Trump, met with Khalil al-Hayya, the leader of Hamas, in Egypt. This encounter is part of an effort to reinvigorate discussions regarding the ceasefire process in Gaza, which has seen limited progress in recent months. Kushner’s upcoming meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled for Monday, which aims to build on this dialogue.

The discussions surround a proposed 15-point roadmap that seeks to ensure Hamas disarms in Gaza while facilitating an Israeli military withdrawal from the region hit hard by conflict. This plan has the potential to impact the lives of approximately two million residents of Gaza and influence reconstruction efforts following a lengthy ceasefire that began over ten months ago.

The confirmation of Kushner’s meeting with al-Hayya came from anonymous officials from both regional and Hamas sources, who were not authorised to disclose information publicly. Kushner was accompanied by representatives from Egypt, Qatar, and Trkiye during his discussions.

Challenges Arising from Ceasefire Discussions

Despite previous attempts to forge a ceasefire, significant hurdles remain, particularly regarding Hamas’ disarmament. A meeting held last year between Kushner, envoy Steve Witkoff, and Hamas leaders had previously contributed to the cessation of hostilities, but progression has stagnated due to disagreements over disarmament protocols.

Within the context of these discussions, Netanyahu publicly rejected the 15-point roadmap last week, marking a notable moment of dissent against the Trump administration, traditionally seen as Israel’s closest ally. Reports suggest that Kushner, along with former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Nickolay Mladenov, the director of the Board of Peace, are set to engage with Netanyahu on further plans.

In advance of the meeting with Netanyahu, several regional powers, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, issued a joint statement condemning Israel’s dismissal of the roadmap. This statement, also supported by Jordan, Pakistan, and Indonesia, accused Israel of obstructing peace efforts and urged for immediate actions to facilitate the roadmap’s implementation.

Conditions for Implementation of the Roadmap

The primary aim of Kushner’s meeting with al-Hayya is reported to be securing Hamas’s commitment to the proposed roadmap, specifically regarding their disarmament obligations. Hamas officials have expressed readiness to commence a 14-day negotiation period to establish an implementation timetable, pending approval from all pertinent parties.

An official from Hamas indicated that Khalil al-Hayya insisted Israel must cease its military actions in Gaza and withdraw to the so-called yellow line before proceeding with the proposed plan. This yellow line, although not precisely defined, signifies a boundary that currently sees Israeli forces controlling approximately 60 per cent of Gaza territory.

In recent statements, Netanyahu indicated a desire to expand Israeli control in Gaza beyond the yellow line, suggesting an increase to 70 per cent. While discussions continue, critical elements of the ceasefire, such as reconstruction efforts and the introduction of international forces, remain stalled, largely awaiting progress on disarmament.

Netanyahu is navigating internal political pressures, notably with elections approaching on October 27, when he will contend with competing narratives and political challenges regarding Gaza. Additionally, the date marks the anniversary of the October 7, 2023 Hamas-led offensive that precipitated the ongoing conflict, further complicating the current political landscape.

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