The recent satellite imagery showcases a remarkable situation in the world’s tropical oceans as eight storms have been active concurrently. This development was observed as of September 29, leading meteorologists to closely monitor multiple tropical systems across both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. This year, the typical high levels of tropical cyclone activity display a pronounced disparity between the two oceanic regions.

The Atlantic’s Lack of Activity

The Atlantic hurricane season has been notably weak up until now. As of September 29, the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported advisories for two tropical storms: Fay and Hanna. Fay was situated significantly west-southwest of the Azores, while Hanna was located far east-northeast of Bermuda. Hanna exhibited maximum sustained winds of approximately 75 kmph and was advancing east-southeast across the open Atlantic. Meanwhile, Fay regained its strength as a tropical storm following a previous decline.

Thus far, the eight named storms of the season have failed to produce any hurricanes. According to NHC data, the accumulated cyclone energy in the Atlantic was around 90 per cent below the average values recorded between 1991 and 2020 by September 26. This year has marked a stark deviation from the seasonal norms typically observed during this period.

The Pacific’s Activity Surge

In contrast, the Pacific ocean has exhibited considerably higher storm activity. On September 28, Hurricane Nolo developed into a major hurricane near the northwestern Hawaiian Islands, characterised by winds reaching about 230 kmph. Concurrently, Hurricane Polo made landfall in Baja California Sur on September 29 with winds of roughly 175 kmph, leading to life-threatening conditions and flash flooding in the affected areas.

Satellite observations confirmed multiple storms actively churning in the Pacific. Tropical Storm Rachel was observed moving west-northwest parallel to the southwestern coastline of Mexico, with wind speeds near 95 kmph and indications that it may further strengthen. An additional disturbance located east-southeast of Hawaii showed a substantial probability of developing further, although it was anticipated to remain distant from the islands.

Furthermore, Typhoon Surigae was observed tracking towards Japan, contributing to the overall busy atmospheric conditions across the western Pacific. The combination of these active systems illustrates the contrasting dynamics between the two ocean regions.

Impact of El Niño on Cyclone Activity

The ongoing phenomenon known as El Niño plays a significant role in influencing storm patterns, but its effects are nuanced and cannot be simplified to a singular cause for all storm activity. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) had predicted a rapid trend toward a strong El Niño during the July to September window of 2026. Generally, El Niño conditions have the potential to inhibit Atlantic hurricane activity by producing upper-level winds or wind shear that disrupts the formation of tropical systems.

Simultaneously, variations in oceanic and atmospheric conditions within the Pacific can enhance the development of tropical cyclones in specific regions. Thus, while El Niño contributes to the contrasting conditions observed in the Atlantic and Pacific, the interplay of diverse factors in ocean and atmosphere dynamics is essential in explaining the current differences in storm activity.

In summary, the disparity in storm activity between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans serves as a reminder of the complex and multifaceted influences governing tropical weather systems. The upcoming weeks will be crucial for monitoring how these evolving patterns develop.

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