The southwest monsoon has made a notable return in many regions of India, resulting in the cumulative rainfall deficit decreasing to 19 per cent. This change follows weeks of inadequate rainfall across the country. According to the latest data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the nation has received 179.4 mm of rainfall between June 4 and July 8, compared to the normal of 222 mm. This is a considerable enhancement from the severe deficits seen during the month of June.

This renewed rain activity has particularly benefited central, western, and eastern parts of India, where several states have either reached normal rainfall levels or have excess precipitation. States such as Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Rajasthan, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and West Bengal are experiencing nearly normal conditions, which offers essential support to local farmers after the monsoon’s delayed onset.

Satellite images taken from INSAT-3DS on Wednesday indicated dense cloud formations across central and eastern India. Monsoon conditions are also reported to be active in parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains and northeastern regions. Forecasts suggest that fresh rain-bearing systems originating from the Bay of Bengal should continue to promote rainfall in the ensuing days.

Delhi Faces Severe Rainfall Deficit

Surrounding states are also experiencing considerable shortfalls. Uttar Pradesh has recorded a 42 per cent deficit, while Punjab and Haryana report 31 per cent and 29 per cent deficits, respectively. Bihar is facing a severe 56 per cent shortfall, with Jharkhand at 39 per cent. Other affected states include Gujarat at 20 per cent, Karnataka at 24 per cent, and Kerala at 30 per cent below normal levels.

The northeastern region presents a varied landscape, with Sikkim and Tripura experiencing normal rainfall levels. However, the states of Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, and Mizoram are still recording below-normal precipitation, with Manipur encountering a significant rainfall deficit.

Future Outlook for Rainfall Distribution

While several states like Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh have largely mitigated their earlier deficits, experts caution that the overall situation is still precarious. Meteorologists attribute the enhanced monsoon activity to multiple low-pressure systems forming over the Bay of Bengal and an active offshore trough along the western coast, which has amplified rainfall during the initial week of July.

This improved rainfall distribution has prevented the national rainfall deficit from worsening, especially following one of the driest starts to the monsoon season in over a century. Nevertheless, weather professionals signal that the situation remains unbalanced, particularly in northern plains including Delhi and neighbouring states, raising concerns regarding groundwater levels, reservoir inflow, and agricultural outputs if significant rainfall does not materialise soon.

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