India is facing a largely dry post-monsoon season as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts below-normal rainfall for most regions from October to December 2026. This forecast follows the conclusion of the southwest monsoon, which ended with a 13 per cent rainfall deficiency. The significant shift in weather patterns is attributed to the strengthening El Nino phenomenon.

The IMD has indicated that rainfall will fall below the long-term average, with exceptions noted in certain areas. Specifically, parts of northwest India and the southern peninsula are expected to experience normal to above-normal precipitation during this period.

Regional Variations in Rainfall Forecast

The IMD’s recent probabilistic forecast outlines that most of India will see below-average rainfall from October to December. In contrast, the southern Peninsular India is expected to receive rainfall between 88 per cent and 112 per cent of its Long Period Average (LPA), which is 334.13 mm based on data from 1971 to 2020.

Given that the October to December timeframe is crucial for rainfall in southern India, the forecast suggests that the influence of the northeast monsoon could be pivotal. This phase contributes approximately 30 per cent of the annual rainfall in the region, with Tamil Nadu and Puducherry receiving nearly half of their yearly precipitation during this season.

Despite expectations of limited rainfall, the IMD maintains that this outlook is probabilistic. This characterisation indicates the likelihood of rainfall categories rather than an outright declaration of no rain. Observers are advised to expect variability in local weather patterns.

Impact of Strengthening El Nino on Weather Patterns

The backdrop of this forecast is a rapidly intensifying El Nino phenomenon over the tropical Pacific. According to the latest assessment from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) in September 2026, the Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly had risen to +3°C, with all 22 forecasting models suggesting that very strong El Nino conditions could be sustained through winter.

El Nino is known to alter weather patterns globally, and its particular impact on India is noteworthy because it has historically coincided with a reduction in monsoon rainfall. The expected decline in precipitation is often intensified by various other oceanic and atmospheric elements, which further complicates weather forecasts.

While the IMD anticipates drier conditions overall, it emphasises that regions might still experience isolated heavy rain events. Individual weather systems could produce significant rainfall even in a broader context of below-normal precipitation.

Regional Experiences and Variability in Weather

The IMD’s probabilistic nature of forecasting suggests that while the overarching trend points towards a drier season, the lived experience across different regions may vary substantially. This means that certain areas might still witness normal or heavier-than-usual rainfall, depending on local weather conditions.

For Indian citizens, this means remaining alert to evolving weather patterns as the post-monsoon period unfolds. The variability in rainfall is an essential aspect to consider, especially in regions known to be impacted heavily by monsoon patterns.

As the country prepares for this upcoming season, the IMD’s forecasts will be crucial in guiding agricultural and water management strategies moving into the last quarter of the year.

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