The existence of water ice in permanently dark craters close to the Moon’s poles has ignited aspirations to establish bases, towns, and cities on the lunar surface. This discovery raises crucial concerns regarding the sustainability of any potential large-scale human settlements on the Moon. The Moon is characterised by its craters, which are remnants of asteroid impacts dating back to its formation. Some crater floors near the poles have remained shrouded in darkness for nearly four billion years. These areas, often termed ‘pits of eternal darkness’, can reach frigid temperatures, lingering around -163°C. Such extreme cold can encapsulate water ice, preserving it for countless years without evaporating.

Since 2013, scientists have acknowledged the presence of water in these lunar polar regions, with initial assessments suggesting the existence of approximately one billion tonnes. However, recent calculations indicate that the actual quantity of water might be significantly lower, which presents a challenge for proposed lunar settlements.

Energy Availability and Solar Power Potential

Despite the concerns regarding water supply, energy might not pose the most significant barrier to the establishment of settlements on the Moon. While the floors of craters remain in perpetual darkness, the surrounding rims are bathed in sunlight for the majority of the year. This phenomenon has led to the term ‘peaks of eternal light’. Current research suggests that solar panels mounted on towers in these illumined regions could yield around three gigawatts of electricity.

The Moon’s resource potential extends beyond energy, as it possesses an abundant supply of silicon. This raises the prospect of manufacturing solar panels on the lunar surface rather than transporting them from Earth. The successful generation of energy could facilitate various resource-intensive activities, including the operation of AI data centres, thereby setting the stage for a burgeoning lunar economy.

However, the question remains whether the development of a sustainable lunar economy is feasible, particularly given the looming challenges posed by water scarcity.

Water Supply as a Critical Factor for Sustainability

The most pressing concern for sustaining a lunar settlement lies in the availability of water. Estimates suggest that a settlement housing one million inhabitants would deplete a hypothetical one billion-tonne supply within just a few years, particularly if water recycling processes are not implemented. Even with advanced recycling systems achieving 98 per cent efficiency, akin to those on the International Space Station, a settlement could exhaust its water resources in just over a century.

If newly revised estimates indicate that the available lunar water is potentially 30 times less than the previously considered billion-tonne figure, the timeframe for sustainability would be drastically reduced. Conversely, smaller colonies, with populations around one thousand or even ten thousand, could sustain themselves for centuries with existing water resources.

There are several strategies that could alleviate these water concerns. Implementing enhanced recycling processes, utilising vertical farming techniques to minimise water consumption, transporting water from asteroids, or locating untapped reserves beneath the lunar surface may provide viable solutions. Some experts suggest that the latter option holds the most promise, as current surveys typically probe just a few metres below the Moon’s surface, while the uppermost layer can span tens of metres in depth. For any ambitions of establishing enduring lunar cities to materialise, locating additional water resources may be an essential undertaking.

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