The United States has announced that Indian nationals will remain barred from the Diversity Visa (DV) lottery program until at least 2028 due to a surge in immigration numbers. This marks the third consecutive year that Indians are unable to participate in the green card lottery, owing to immigration volumes that exceed the program’s limits. The Diversity Visa lottery, which annually grants 55,000 immigrant visas through random selection to diversify the immigrant population, excludes countries that have sent more than 50,000 immigrants to the US over the past five years. India’s ever-growing number of immigrants has placed it beyond this threshold, prompting the ongoing exclusion.

Rising Immigration Numbers Drive Exclusion

In recent years, the number of Indian immigrants to the US has surged dramatically. Official data shows that in 2021, around 93,450 Indians migrated to the US, rising to 127,010 in 2022. Although numbers declined to 78,070 in 2023, the cumulative five-year total far exceeds the program’s 50,000-person threshold. This high volume of immigration from India, surpassing totals from entire continents such as South America, Africa, or Europe, has caused the country’s ineligibility for the lottery. Alongside India, other countries including China, South Korea, Canada, Pakistan, and Brazil have also been excluded from the program for similar reasons.

Shrinking Immigration Pathways for Indians

The lottery exclusion adds to the growing difficulties faced by Indians seeking permanent residency in the US. The stringent policies introduced during President Trump’s administration, who was inaugurated for a second term in 2025, have significantly narrowed alternative pathways to US immigration. Among these measures is the imposition of a steep $100,000 fee on new H-1B visa applications and increased vetting procedures including for student visas and social media screenings. The administration’s focus has been on stricter border control, enhanced screening of visa applicants, and limiting immigrant benefits. For Indians, the options for permanent residency now typically revolve around converting temporary work visas like the H-1B into green cards, investment-based immigration, asylum claims, or family sponsorships.

These developments signal a tougher immigration environment for Indian nationals, with fewer opportunities under the diversity program and stricter enforcement of visa regulations. While the US retains its appeal as a destination for skilled workers and families, the pathway to permanent residency is becoming increasingly fraught with challenges due to political and policy shifts aimed at controlling immigration numbers.

This tightening of policies reflects a broader trend in US immigration reform under the current administration that prioritises national security and immigration control over diversity-driven entry. Consequently, many Indians aspiring for the American dream must now navigate a complex and restricted immigration landscape until the lottery eligibility potentially resumes after 2028.

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