A recent report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) indicates that the world is on the brink of surpassing a critical climate threshold, with the possibility of global temperatures temporarily exceeding 1.5°C now deemed unlikely. The Emissions Gap Report 2026 outlines that years of insufficient measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have led to this situation.

The report warns that even if nations adhere to their current climate commitments, global temperatures could rise by approximately 2.6°C by the year 2100. Should existing policies remain unchanged, this figure could escalate to 2.8°C, significantly heightening the risks of extreme weather events, such as severe heatwaves, flooding, and rising sea levels.

While the report does not categorically state that the Paris Agreement has failed, it acknowledges that the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C is now largely unattainable. The focus has shifted to minimising the duration and extent of any temperature overshoot, followed by efforts to lower temperatures back towards the target.

Importance of the 1.5°C Threshold

The Paris Agreement, established in 2015, aims to keep global warming significantly below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with an emphasis on limiting the increase to 1.5°C. This half-degree difference is critical, as even slight increases in temperature can exacerbate risks to human health, food and water security, coastal communities, and biodiversity.

Crossing the 1.5°C threshold does not render climate action pointless; however, prolonged periods above this level increase the likelihood of severe and irreversible changes to the Earth’s climate system. The threshold refers to the long-term global average temperature rise, rather than isolated extreme weather years.

As temperatures rise, the potential for catastrophic impacts grows, making it increasingly challenging to recover from climate-related damages. For instance, a woman was recently photographed covering her face while walking in Prayagraj during a heatwave, highlighting the immediate effects of rising temperatures on daily life.

Future Actions to Mitigate Climate Change

According to UNEP, there remains a chance to limit the extent of temperature overshoot, but achieving this requires significantly more aggressive emissions reductions than currently promised by nations. To follow the most ambitious pathway, global greenhouse gas emissions must decrease by 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035, and 69 per cent by 2040, compared to 2025 levels.

In contrast, the existing national climate commitments are projected to deliver only a fraction of these necessary reductions. The report’s most optimistic scenario suggests that warming could peak at around 1.7-1.8°C before potentially reverting to 1.5°C by 2100, but this outcome remains uncertain.

Achieving such a scenario would require extensive removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, in addition to deep and sustained cuts in emissions. The report underscores that every year of insufficient action increases the likelihood of severe climate impacts, complicating efforts to return to safer temperature levels.

While crossing the 1.5°C threshold may now be inevitable, the degree of damage is not predetermined. The actions taken by governments in this decade will play a crucial role in determining the future livability of the planet and the duration of any adverse conditions.

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