China has attributed the recent flooding in Nepal and Tibet to climate change; however, experts assert that this explanation is not entirely sufficient. They warn that China’s extensive activities in Tibet, particularly its mining operations, are destabilising delicate ecosystems, consequently increasing flood and disaster risks throughout the Himalayan region.

A newly released environmental assessment from China highlights the significant presence of mining operations situated near glaciers that have not been thoroughly investigated. The assessment indicates that out of 694 mining rights identified in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR), 156 are located within five kilometres of glaciers, comprising a combined area of approximately 1,810.94 square kilometres.

These sites are critically positioned in the headwaters of several transboundary rivers that flow into India, Nepal, and Bhutan, elevating the potential for disaster risks significantly. Additionally, mining activities adjacent to these glaciers may disrupt local hydrology and compromise terrain stability, creating implications that could affect downstream communities. While China continues to enhance its infrastructure, such as the G-216 national highway, it has notably enforced stringent information controls regarding the impacts of these activities.

Mining Rights on Transboundary River Basins

The analysis of mining rights proximity to glacial areas reveals a notable concentration in transboundary river basins close to international borders. Specifically, six of the ten highest-ranked mining rights are found within the Yarlung Tsangpo basin, which is instrumental to the drainage systems flowing into India. The two most concerning mining rights are positioned directly on the India-Tibet border, with others in areas bordering Bhutan.

The Tashikhang lead-zinc mine in Lhunze County showcases the largest glacial exposure among these mining rights, encompassing an area of 158.98 square kilometres. This mine affects the Chayul Chu river, which eventually becomes part of the Subansiri River in India, contributing to the Brahmaputra. The geographical implications of such mining activities raise concerns about potential flood risks to nearby communities.

Furthermore, the mining area in Tsona County also exhibits significant glacier proximity, with headwater tributaries flowing into Tawang district in India before merging with the Manas River system in Bhutan. These mines are strategically situated in sensitive regions that warrant closer scrutiny, especially considering the various transboundary river basins involved.

Understanding the Risks and Consequences

The mining operations near glaciers carry considerable implications for downstream flood risks, especially concerning glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Close proximity to these frost-fed rivers increases the risk of disturbances that contribute to the already precarious hydrological environment. Climate change exacerbates these issues, leading to alterations in both hydrological and geological conditions.

Human activities related to mining, such as excavation and waste generation, could further destabilise already vulnerable landscapes, affecting glacier behaviour and enhancing the likelihood of flood occurrences. Historical precedents, such as the situation at Kyrgyzstan’s Kumtor gold mine, illustrate the potential for mining activities to induce similar disasters by destabilising glacial systems.

The existing body of research indicates a direct link between mining-induced disturbances and downstream flood risks. With increasing human interference in Tibet’s already stressed permafrost and glacier systems, particularly along transboundary waterways, there is a heightened risk of severe flooding events impacting communities far downstream.

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