Lightning-induced fires are likely to increase with the changing climate, includes a study conducted from 2000 through 2020. Lightning-induced fires contribute to almost half of all the wildfires and over 90% of the burnt area in forests. With the effects of climate change, there will be an increase in the frequency of such instances.
The research factored in Fine Fuel Moisture Code, Duff Moisture Code, and Drought Code from the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) system to properly estimate fire ignition possibilities due to natural lightning. Alongside, the study also predicted coincidence in cloud-to-ground lightning days with FWI by 2031 and 2060, particularly in the interior north, Western US.
The study conducted in context to the Canadian forest is also validated by Environment and Canada’s global atmospheric model of 2024, which estimated the increase in lightning resulting in a greater burnt area by the end of the century. According to the study published in May 2025, each year an average of 1.96 million hectares of land in Canada is burnt by forest fires. Between 1959 and 2015, lightning played a role in about 50% of wildfires while the other half was caused due to anthropogenic factors. But lightning-induced fires led to a more extensive burnt area because they occur in isolated regions, unlike those caused due to anthropogenic triggers which are closer to human habitation and could be contained quickly.
Moreover, lightning-induced forest fires are especially distributed in clusters, making it difficult for fire management agencies to address them in multiple and remote areas.
Summer Wildfires
Parallelly, another study published in August pointed out that cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning is another major source of summer wildfires in the Western United States (WUS). Such fires are responsible for wiping out over two-thirds of the total burnt area in the region.
“Smoke from these fires has detrimental effects on air quality and public health and has partially reversed air-quality improvement stemming from the Clean Air Act as the climate continues to warm in the WUS. The risk of wildfire, including those by lightning, is projected to grow due to dry vegetation,” the study stated. The same study further observed that climate change has led to alterations in surface heating, moisture fluctuations, and circulation changes which contribute to cloud-to-ground lightning occurrence and precipitation. Increased risk of flash floods and slope failure due to heavy rain also impacts the recently burnt area.
And so, the risk in such areas is not necessarily only from lightning-induced wildfire, but also from hydrologic hazards.
Other than the US, wildfire wiped out over 1,000,000 ha of forest in Europe in 2025, resulting in the release of carbon dioxide equivalent to the annual emissions of Sweden or Portugal. Lightning was also found to be responsible for triggering wildfire in Portugal and Spain recently.