The southwest monsoon is expected to continue its withdrawal from various regions of north and central India. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast released on October 2, conditions are becoming favourable for the monsoon to retreat from parts of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and most of Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh. The entire regions of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand are also set to experience this withdrawal within the next 24 hours.

In addition, certain regions of Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and Maharashtra are also predicted to witness the monsoon receding. This advance in the withdrawal process marks a significant transition as October commences.

Rain and Thunderstorms Expected in Southern and Northeastern India

On October 3, isolated heavy rainfall is very likely in Arunachal Pradesh, as reported by the IMD. Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning are forecasted for Assam, Meghalaya, and the northeastern states of Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura. Southern India will also see weather activity, with Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal likely to experience isolated thunderstorms along with lightning and wind speeds of 40 to 50 km/h.

Additionally, similar thunderstorms with wind speeds of 30 to 40 km/h may affect isolated areas in Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Mahe, Lakshadweep, and the Sub-Himalayan districts of West Bengal and Sikkim. Strong surface winds are also anticipated in select areas of Andhra Pradesh, while hot and humid conditions are expected in isolated locations over Konkan and Goa.

The rainfall prediction indicates fairly widespread precipitation over Kerala and Lakshadweep on October 3, alongside expectations of similar conditions in coastal regions of Karnataka. Isolated showers are also anticipated in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and South Interior Karnataka.

Transition Towards the Post-Monsoon Period

The withdrawal of the southwest monsoon has emerged as a primary large-scale weather development as the month of October unfolds. The current withdrawal line, as of October 2, extends from Gurdaspur through Chandigarh, Muzaffarnagar, Aligarh, Dholpur, Udaipur, Deesa, and Naliya. The IMD has indicated that the monsoon is likely to retreat even further over the coming 24 hours, signalling an important transition towards the post-monsoon phase.

In conjunction, various weather systems and circulations remain active across the northeastern region, the Arabian Sea, and southern peninsula, facilitating continued rainfall in these areas. Recent observations reveal that rainfall is primarily concentrated in the southern and northeastern parts of the country, along with regions in eastern India, whereas the majority of the rest of the nation has remained dry during this period.

This evolving weather pattern highlights the dynamics of the southwest monsoon’s withdrawal as it marks the end of the rainy season for many areas, paving the way for the climatic conditions typical of the post-monsoon period.

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