The recent report by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) indicates that the globe is entering a phase where surpassing a 1.5°C rise in temperature is increasingly likely. However, this does not signify an irretrievable point. UNEP’s Limiting Overshoot report suggests that it remains possible to moderate the extent of temperature increases while adapting to the ensuing impacts and ultimately returning temperatures to lower levels.

The concept of 1.5°C refers to the increase in the Earth’s average temperature compared to pre-industrial figures. It is important to note that this figure does not imply uniform warming across all regions. Nevertheless, for India, the implications of reaching this threshold are particularly pressing and already observable.

Impacts of Extreme Weather on India

India’s vulnerability to climate change stems from its high dependence on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, its vast population, and economic activities. According to the World Bank, over 80 per cent of the population resides in areas prone to climate-related disasters like extreme heat, flooding, droughts, and cyclones.

Research spanning from 1981 to 2020 indicates that the maximum average summer temperatures in India have increased by roughly 1°C, with accompanying rises in the frequency, duration, and severity of heatwaves. The climate’s deterioration is further exemplified by findings suggesting the spread of dangerously high humidity levels, a condition termed uncompensable heat stress, which may begin affecting the monsoon season in addition to summer months.

Water and food security are becoming more tenuous as warming progresses. A recent examination suggests that climate change may exacerbate the links between El Niño phenomena and droughts affecting Indian monsoons, further endangering food production and aggravating existing water scarcity issues throughout the country.

Consequences for the Himalayas and Climate Justice

The ramifications of climate change extend beyond warmer temperatures and inconsistent rainfall. The glaciers of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) play a crucial role in sustaining India’s rivers; however, they are experiencing significant ice loss at unprecedented rates. Reports indicate that the region’s glacier ice-loss rates have doubled since the year 2000, posing threats to water security while heightening the risks of flooding and other natural disasters.

The recent catastrophic flooding in Nepal, which led to the deaths of over 1,000 individuals, highlights the dangers posed by climate change not only in South Asia but also concerning climate justice. Nations like Nepal bear minimal responsibility for global greenhouse gas emissions, yet they disproportionately face peril from altering climatic conditions.

Consequently, the burden of climate change is often felt most severely in vulnerable regions, exacerbated by the historic environmental degradation caused by more industrialised nations. These disparities underscore the immediate necessity for collaborative global action in addressing climate impacts.

Future Directions at COP31

With these considerations in mind, the upcoming UN climate summit, COP31, set to take place in Antalya, Turkiye, from November 9 to 20, 2026, holds significant importance. The discussions will necessitate transforming climate commitments into substantial reductions in emissions while enhancing adaptation strategies and climate finance for the most vulnerable countries.

India has previously made a strong case for these issues at earlier climate summits, including COP30 in Brazil. The 1.5°C threshold serves as a critical warning; every increment of warming potentially leads to increased heat, water stress, and climate-related risks. Timely and robust actions are paramount for nations such as India as they navigate these challenges moving forward.

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