The World Health Organization (WHO) has raised concerns about heightened health risks linked to the intensifying El Niño climate phenomenon, which poses significant threats to India due to shifts in temperature and rainfall patterns. The latest findings are highlighted in the WHO’s Global Public Health Situation Analysis – El Niño 2026 report, which aims to assist countries in bolstering their preparedness and health system responses.

India is reportedly already experiencing an uptick in mosquito-borne diseases, specifically dengue and malaria. In August, Delhi reported 90 new dengue cases, bringing the seasonal total to 311. Furthermore, malaria cases surged from 17 in July to 53 in August, as indicated by civic data referenced in various reports.

Understanding El Niño’s Impact on Health Risks

El Niño is a weather phenomenon arising from the periodic warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This warming alters atmospheric circulation, potentially disrupting weather patterns across vast distances. In the Indian context, El Niño is usually associated with modifications in monsoon rainfall and elevated temperatures, though its exact impact varies influenced by other climatic factors.

According to India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences, El Niño conditions emerged in 2026 and are anticipated to strengthen further, potentially reaching a “very strong” classification by the end of the year. The WHO has indicated that variations in temperature, rainfall, and humidity could alter the habitats where mosquitoes breed and transmit diseases, thereby increasing the risk of dengue and malaria.

The Mechanism of Disease Transmission

Mosquitoes are particularly sensitive to changes in their environment. Fluctuations in temperature and rainfall can impact their breeding, development, and activity. Elevated temperatures may accelerate the mosquito-borne disease transmission cycle, while erratic rainfall can create breeding grounds where water accumulates, such as in drains, containers, and construction sites.

The correlation between heat and dengue is complex; it is not merely the case that increased heat leads to higher cases of dengue. Various mosquito species and diseases react differently to climatic conditions, and outbreaks depend on an array of factors, including levels of rainfall, humidity, sanitation practices, and mosquito-control measures. Notably, the WHO has pointed out that mosquitoes responsible for dengue and malaria are particularly affected by variations in temperature, rainfall, and humidity, all of which play a crucial role in determining the viability of environments for transmission.

Current Weather Conditions in India

The effects of strengthening El Niño conditions are already being reflected in India’s atmospheric forecasts. The Ministry of Earth Sciences has stated that El Niño is likely to continue until February 2027, cautioning that its influence on the Indian monsoon depends on multiple oceanic and atmospheric parameters. This long-term persistence raises concerns regarding the potential impact on the agricultural sector and water supply.

India is currently experiencing lower-than-normal rainfall for September, which follows earlier deficiencies noted during the monsoon season. These climatic variations have intensified worries about agriculture, availability of water, and overall food security in the region. With the dual threat of climate change and rising health risks, the situation is under close observation as various stakeholders prepare to tackle the impending challenges.

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