The initial hours of counting for the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections have produced a clear trend: the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s JDU, has surged far ahead of the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan. Counting began on Friday morning, and the alliance quickly moved past the halfway mark, giving early indications of retaining power in the state.

Massive Lead for NDA as Trends Cross 190 Seats

With counting still underway, the NDA has established a commanding lead in over 201 constituencies of the 243-seat assembly. In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan has managed leads in only about 36 seats and other parties with 6 seats

Prominent Contenders and Constituency Highlights

RJD’s chief ministerial face Tejashwi Yadav is ahead in Raghopur, while Maithili Thakur, contesting her first election on a BJP ticket, has secured a lead in Alinagar.
Among closely watched seats, the BJP has an edge in constituencies including Patna Sahib, Buxar, Alinagar, and Lakhisarai. Meanwhile, the RJD holds leads in Hajipur, Bodh Gaya, Thakurganj, Amnour and Raghopur, according to data from PValue Analytics.

Neck-to-Neck Battle Turns into One-Sided Contest

Although the initial phase of counting hinted at a competitive fight, the situation changed swiftly. For a short period, the BJP was trailing the RJD in the total number of leads. However, the party soon regained momentum and crossed the 80-seat mark independently. By 11:30 a.m., the NDA was ahead in 190 seats, with the Mahagathbandhan stuck at 49, marking a widening gap.

Exit Polls Had Anticipated the NDA Wave

Pre-poll and exit poll projections had largely favoured the NDA. NDTV’s combined “poll of exit polls” suggested the ruling alliance could claim 146 seats, leaving the opposition bloc at roughly 92, significantly below its previous tally of 110. Jan Suraaj was predicted to win only one seat.

Some surveys even presented unusual outcomes one exit poll by Peoples Pulse suggested that while voters backed an NDA government, Tejashwi Yadav was still the preferred choice for chief minister among respondents.

Possible Shift in Power Equation Within NDA

One of the subplots of this election revolves around the internal dynamics of the NDA. In the 2020 assembly polls, the BJP won more seats than the JDU and became the senior partner. This time, however, forecasts from Matrize indicate that the JDU might finish two to ten seats ahead of the BJP, potentially placing Nitish Kumar’s party back in a dominant position within the coalition.

BJP Could Emerge as Single Largest Party

Exit poll numbers also hint at another shift: the BJP may surpass the RJD to become the single largest party in Bihar. The RJD had topped the chart in 2020 with 75 seats, but projections now show the BJP in the 67–70 range, while the RJD could fall between 56–69.

Voting Patterns Remain Consistent Across Communities

Early studies on voter behaviour indicate that traditional support patterns held strong. Nitish Kumar received significant backing from women voters, with 45% reportedly favouring the NDA. On the other hand, 90% of Yadav voters supported the Mahagathbandhan, while analysts expect the alliance to have secured nearly 80% of Muslim votes.

Record Turnout and a Heated Campaign Season

The election witnessed a historic turnout of 67.13%, the highest in Bihar’s recent political history. Polling took place in two phases on November 6 and November 11, following a campaign season marked by sharp exchanges between both alliances as well as independent players like Prashant Kishor, whose Jan Suraaj movement gained considerable attention despite its weak show during counting.

Nitish Kumar Eyes Fifth Consecutive Term

With trends heavily favouring the NDA, the focus now shifts to whether Nitish Kumar will begin his fifth straight term as Chief Minister. Prominent candidates whose fates are being closely monitored include Deputy CMs Samrat Choudhary and Vijay Kumar Sinha, JJD founder Tej Pratap Yadav, and Bihar Congress chief Rajesh Kumar.