Israel’s missile defense systems are under severe pressure as officials warn that key interceptors—especially those from the high-cost Arrow program—could run out within just 10 to 12 days if Iranian missile strikes persist at their current rate.

Since the launch of Operation Rising Lion last Friday, Iran has reportedly launched close to 400 ballistic missiles targeting Israeli territory, part of a larger estimated arsenal of around 2,000 such weapons. Israel has responded with significant airstrikes, claiming to have destroyed a third of Iran’s missile launch platforms and asserting control over the skies. However, sources familiar with intelligence indicate that the sheer volume of Iranian attacks is beginning to overwhelm Israel’s missile defenses.

One anonymous U.S. intelligence official cautioned, “The system is already overwhelmed. Soon, they may have to choose which missiles to intercept.” This warning highlights the precarious position Israel faces, as its Arrow interceptors—each costing roughly $3 million—are being expended rapidly to neutralize high-altitude ballistic threats.

The missile defense network is layered, including the Iron Dome for short-range threats, David’s Sling for mid-range missiles, and Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 systems for long-range, high-altitude intercepts. These are further supplemented by U.S.-provided Patriots and THAAD batteries. Experts emphasise the critical role of Arrow interceptors given the sophistication of Iranian ballistic missiles. As missile defense analyst Tal Inbar put it, “In comparison to the Arrow system, the Iron Dome is like shooting a 9-millimeter pistol at heavy Iranian missiles.”

Recent attacks have exposed vulnerabilities in Israel’s shield. Iranian missiles have struck close to key military sites, including near the Israel Defense Forces’ headquarters in Tel Aviv and an oil refinery near Haifa. Verified footage has also documented missile impacts near a critical Israeli intelligence base at Camp Moshe Dayan, home to the elite Unit 8200.

The financial cost of these defensive operations is immense. Estimates suggest Israel is spending up to 1 billion shekels (around $285 million) nightly on missile interceptions. This raises serious concerns about the sustainability of current defense spending and logistics in a prolonged conflict scenario.

Meanwhile, the U.S. has deployed additional missile defense assets to support Israel, but Pentagon officials express similar worries about their interceptor supplies. A defense expert commented, “Neither the US nor Israel can continue to sit and intercept missiles all day. They must act decisively before stocks run critically low.”

The human cost of this conflict continues to rise. Israeli authorities confirmed 24 civilian deaths and over 600 injuries from Iranian missile strikes. Iran reports higher casualties from Israeli retaliatory airstrikes, claiming 224 deaths, many civilians included. A recent Israeli strike on Iran’s state broadcaster headquarters, described by Defense Minister Israel Katz as targeting “the mouthpiece of Iranian propaganda,” was later identified by the IDF as a military communications center, though no public evidence was provided.

Questions about Israel’s long-term defense readiness remain unresolved. Israel Aerospace Industries, the manufacturer of the Arrow interceptors, has not commented publicly, and the Israeli military stated only that it is “prepared and ready to handle any scenario,” but declined to discuss munitions availability.

As missile exchanges persist, Israel’s defensive capacity faces a critical test. The outcome may depend less on technological firepower and more on the ability to maintain resources and endurance over time.